Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Jackson, KY

797 
WGUS73 KJKL 310402
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1202 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

KYC063-115-175-310630-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200731T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan KY-Johnson KY-Elliott KY-
1202 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN ELLIOTT
COUNTIES...

At 1201 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain falling across the
warned area.  Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lenox, Elamton, Moon, Isonville, Elkfork, Steele, Flatgap, Jeptha,
Keaton, Barnrock, Crockett and Wrigley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 8293 3805 8295 3803 8300 3798 8302
      3796 8299 3800 8296 3800 8293 3796 8282
      3793 8277 3792 8276 3793 8321 3804 8330

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KAS

625 
WGUS73 KJKL 310623
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
223 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

KYC063-115-175-310633-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200731T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan KY-Johnson KY-Elliott KY-
223 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN
JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN ELLIOTT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3809 8293 3805 8295 3803 8300 3798 8302
      3796 8299 3800 8296 3800 8293 3796 8282
      3793 8277 3792 8276 3793 8321 3804 8330

$$

JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

More widespread convection has moved off to the east, with the
more sustained activity aligning near the stationary frontal
boundary, which appears to have nudged just south of the Ohio
River. Over the next several hours, convection looks to take aim
at the I-64 corridor. So far, rainfall rates have not been
excessive due to the progressive nature of the cells; however,
there is good training potential, and additional problems will
occur if the heavier rainfall rates can become more concentrated
over a particular axis. Further south, convection has been
widely scattered at best; however, the combination of additional
short wave energy, as well as ample 850-925 mb moisture transport
should allow for at at least scattered to numerous convection
through the night. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly, maintaining the
highest chances near I-64, with lesser chances seen across the
Cumberland Valley. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 454 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

The afternoon surface analysis is showing a quasi-stationary
boundary remains north along the Ohio River, with a surface low
pushing into southern Illinois. This has been an anchor for the
most persistent showers and thunderstorms today and will continue
to be the primary anchor. Outside this we have ample moisture with
PWATs climbing into the 2 plus inch range and earlier convection
has induced plenty of boundaries to keep showers and thunderstorms
going this afternoon. This has lead to some isolated high water
issues, with the potential of more issues through the evening.
The main concern in the airmass is the potential for training
storms and storms tracking over the same areas multiple times.

Tonight the main area of concern for continued rainfall will be up
in the Bluegrass closer to the front and have placed greater PoPs
in this region. However, this is all expected to relent through
the late evening and overnight, as low level jet decreases, mid
level wave and surface low push east. Given the cloud cover and
rainfall would expect the lows would be relatively uniform. The
boundary will linger near by through the remainder of the period
and interact with upper level waves. This will keep a good shot of
showers and thunderstorm in the forecast for Friday, but more
focused on the Cumberland Valley. While we could see some heavier
rainfall, the PWATs do decrease below 2 inches in most cases and
therefore think the flooding issues should be more isolated.
However, WPC does maintain a slight risk at this time. The chances
for more substantial convection will ultimately depend on much
instability can be built under mostly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

In general, the extended forecast looks to be active, but some
uncertainty does exist in regards to the timing and evolution of
some weather systems that may influence our weather. The primary
players in our weather for this weekend and next week will be a
large trough of low pressure aloft that will be situated over the
eastern half of the CONUS. A couple of surface based low pressure
systems, and their attendant frontal boundaries, will also move
across our part of the country, and will have some influence on
our weather as well. The wild card in this scenario is going be
tropical cyclone Isaias. The models have Isaias exerting its
influence on our land based weather systems, and could end up
keeping these inland systems from making as much eastward progress
as they normally might have. Based on this, decided to go with a
slightly modified version of the latest NBM data, incorporating
Isaias and its influence into the forecast equation, while not
completing discounting the NBM solution. At this time, we are
forecasting a very good chance of rain across the area for
Saturday, as an area of low pressure moves across the Ohio Valley
and upper Tennessee Valley regions. After that, precip chances
were modeled very closely to the NBM solution, with slight
adjustments here and there. The overall pattern suggests daily
chances of rain, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours,
through next Wednesday, with quieter periods each night.

As far as temperatures go, we anticipate below normal highs and
lows across area, due to persistent, extensive cloud cover and
periods of rain. Daytime highs should generally be in the lower
80s, with nightly lows mainly in the 60s. Winds should be light
and generally out of the south or southwest most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2020

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will nudge south towards the
I-64 corridor into Friday. More sustained convection looks to
occur near KSYM through 06z tonight, where MVFR/IFR conditions
will be maintained through the majority of the period. Further
south, convection will be more scattered in nature, so have
maintained VCTS at the rest of the TAF sites, with generally VFR
conditions prevailing in between bouts of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Between 06 and 12z, convection will become less
widespread, with IFR stratus building in from northwest to
southeast. The IFR stratus will gradually lift and scatter our by
late Friday morning, with additional convection threatening into
the afternoon. Winds will average less than 10 kts through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>115-118>120.

&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106>115-118>120-312300-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-
Knott-Owsley-Perry-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Jenkins, Whitesburg,
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Heavy rain
and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats
this afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be possible
depending on how individual storm cells track later today into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Wednesday
and will be most widespread during the afternoon and evening
hours.

Periods of heavy rainfall can be expected to continue on Friday
likely resulting in between 1 and 2 inches of event total
rainfall for a good portion of the area. Localized amounts in
excess of 3 inches are also possible in places that see the most
persistent showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in reports of excessive rainfall
or flooding through Friday.

KYZ079-080-083>088-116-117-312300-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Clay-
Leslie-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello,
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville,
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Manchester, and Hyden
352 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon Into Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Heavy rain
and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main threats
this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding will be possible
depending on how individual storm cells track later today into
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Friday through Wednesday
and will be most widespread during the afternoon and evening
hours.

Periods of heavy rainfall can be expected to continue on Friday
likely resulting in between 1 and 2 inches of event total
rainfall for a good portion of the area. Localized amounts in
excess of 3 inches are also possible in places that see the most
persistent showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in reports of excessive rainfall
or flooding through Friday.

DJ