Tornado Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
721 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

Squall line of TS will move across the terminals between 01-03z
with restrictions of MVFR to possibly IFR. Strong SW winds 15-20
kts with gusts 30-35 kts will continue outside of convection.
Gusts of 40-50 kts expected as storms impacted all terminals.
Included wind shear tonight due to anomalously strong low level
jet of 50-60 kts at 2-2.5 kft agl. Precipitation will rapidly
push east across the terminals through 05-06z, with trailing
showers through 07-08z. Ceilings improve to VFR through sunrise
with just lingering low clouds scouring out through Fri under
breezy and dry NW winds 15G25kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [247 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

Warm and windy conditions were observed across the area this
afternoon. Temperatures were in the low to mid 80s, and there have
been multiple reports of wind gusts 40-50 mph this afternoon.
Multiple trees were reported down across western portions of
Alachua County due to the high winds. A Wind Advisory continues
for entire region until late tonight.

A squall line was developing to the west of the area early this
afternoon, and this will move through the area late this afternoon
through the late evening hours. Scattered showers and storms were
developing over interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley
ahead of the main line this afternoon, and isolated strong to
severe storms are possible with this activity. The 18Z sounding
this afternoon showed strong 0-6km shear around 55 knots, 0-1km
helicity over 300 m2/s2, and sufficient CAPE for severe weather
late this afternoon and tonight. The limiting factor has been the
mid-level lapse rates, which were weak on the sounding. The squall
line may produce numerous severe storms north of a line from
Jacksonville to Gainesville (Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather), and
scattered severe storms southward (Slight Risk of Severe Weather).
The main threat will be straight line winds of 50-70 mph. Isolated
tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. The squall line is forecast to
move into the western portion of the area between 4 and 6 pm, and
then it is forecast to race to the southeast and through the
southeastern portion of the area (Flagler County) around midnight
tonight. Rain and embedded storms will linger for a few hours
behind the squall line, with rain ending from northwest to
southeast after midnight.

Temperatures will drop late tonight as skies clear, with
temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s across interior
southeast Georgia and interior northeast Florida and the lower 50s
for the coastal areas and north central Florida. Breezy to windy
conditions will continue overnight.

The cold front will push south of the state during the day on
Friday, and surface high pressure over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico will build east northeastward towards the area. Breezy
westerly winds will prevail through much of the day. Highs on
Friday will be cool in the mid to upper 50s across southeast
Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, and the low 60s elsewhere.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

Upper level trough axis will slide eastward Friday night, and
surface high pressure will settle over the area. Clear skies and
light winds will lead to a cool night, with overnight lows in the
low to mid 30s across the interior, and the upper 30s to around 40
degrees at the coast. Another upper trough will swing eastward
across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic states on Saturday.
Surface high pressure over the area will weaken and shift east,
and be replaced by high pressure to the north and northeast of the
area Saturday night. A light onshore flow will develop at the
coast in the afternoon, and highs on Saturday will remain
generally in the low to mid 60s, except upper 60s Marion County.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be a little warmer
in the low to mid 40s across the interior and in the upper 40s to
around 50.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Zonal flow aloft is forecast for the start of the second half of
the weekend, with surface high pressure east of the Mid Atlantic
and Northeast. A frontal boundary south of the region Sunday
morning will make its way northward through the Sunday night, and
low level moisture will increase across the area. An area of low
pressure will move across the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday
morning, and then race off to the northeast. Another area of low
pressure will form along the front and move quickly northeastward
to the Mid Atlantic by Tuesday morning. A weak shortwave is
forecast to move along the northern Gulf coast and Florida
Panhandle on Monday, and this will help produce a few showers
across the area. A cold front will also move into the Southeast on
Monday, and then stall well north of the area on Tuesday. An upper
level ridge is then forecast to build across southern Florida and
Cuba through the middle of the week. Highs are forecast to be near
normal on Sunday and then above normal through the middle of the
week with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s each day.

.MARINE...

Strong south to southwest winds will continue ahead of a strong
cold front, with SCA to Gale conditions prevailing. A strong cold
front will cross the region late this afternoon into this
evening. Strong to severe winds are expected to accompany the
front. High pressure will build from the west southwest late
Tonight into Friday, then overhead Friday night. This high will
move to the east Saturday. A weak cold front will move southeast
across region Saturday night. High pressure will then build to the
north Sunday, and northeast Sunday night. The high will move to
the east Monday. A cold front will move southeast across area
Tuesday.

Rip Currents...Moderate through Friday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Areas with high dispersions will continue this afternoon with
values well in excess of 75 over parts of northeast FL. Windy
conditions as well with gusts around 45 mph but RH values will
stay well above critical values. On Friday, cooler and drier
behind the front and winds will be westerly at about 15 mph and
gusty, elevated-high dispersions, and RH values possibly down to
around 28-32 percent so will be a fire sensitive day but no red
flags expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  46  54  34  62  41 / 100   0   0  10   0
SSI  52  59  41  59  46 / 100   0   0   0   0
JAX  54  61  37  64  44 / 100   0   0   0   0
SGJ  54  62  41  64  48 / 100   0   0   0   0
GNV  49  61  36  66  43 / 100   0   0   0   0
OCF  52  64  37  68  44 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for Baker-Bradford-Central
     Marion-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-
     Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Marion-Gilchrist-
     Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland Nassau-Inland
     St. Johns-Northern Columbia-Putnam-Southern Columbia-
     Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua-Western Marion.

GA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-
     Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Gale Warning until 3 PM EST Friday for Waters from Altamaha
     Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MACCLENNY               30.28N 82.13W
02/06/2020                   BAKER              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH DIAMATER PINE LIMBS
            LITTERING THE ROADS IN MACCLENNY FROM 5TH STREET TO US 90
            SOUTH. THERE WERE ALSO POWERLINES DOWN NEAR WOODBINE ROAD
            AND WOODBINE CEMETERY.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LIVE OAK                30.29N 82.99W
02/06/2020                   SUWANNEE           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS SUWANNNEE COUNTY
            INCLUDING TREES DOWN, POWER LINES DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS
            BLOWN. SOME TREES BLOCKED PORTIONS OF ROADS. WIND GUSTS
            FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS RANGED FROM 35-45 MPH.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
403 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E PALM COAST          29.57N 81.19W
02/06/2020  M43 MPH          Flagler            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND GUST MEASURED ON HAMMOCK DUNE BRIDGE IN PALM COAST.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
418 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SE TAYLOR             30.38N 82.24W
02/06/2020                   Baker              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS NOEL ROAD AND KYLE PEN ROAD.

&&

JHESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
420 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S MACCLENNY           30.25N 82.12W
02/06/2020                   Baker              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES NEAR JEFF STARLING ROAD AND STATE
            ROAD 121.

&&

JHESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MACCLENNY               30.28N 82.12W
02/06/2020                   BAKER              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOFING TORN OFF OF A BUILDING. REPORTED VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

KC