Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
808 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]

LIFR conditions and gusty easterly surface winds associated with
strong and slow moving thunderstorms will impact the GNV terminal
through around 01Z before activity shifts westward this evening.
Otherwise, periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible at
VQQ and GNV after 05Z. Confidence was currently too low to include
IFR conditions overnight at this time. VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere overnight and on Thursday. Easterly surface winds
sustained at 5-10 knots at the coastal and Duval terminals will
become calm towards 04Z, with light easterly winds resuming after
sunrise. Sustained easterly surface winds will then increase to
10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 16Z and around 10 knots
inland. Thunderstorms may begin to develop at the GNV terminal
towards 19Z on Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [443 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure to the north is delivering light east to southeasterly
flow into the area this afternoon. A few showers and storms that
developed earlier this afternoon along the coast and I-95 are now
moving further inland towards Highway 301. Additional storms will
form farther inland today compared to yesterday as the the east
to southeasterly onshore flow from the Atlantic continues through
the evening with outflow boundary collisions under weak flow
aloft serving as the main trigger for additional storms, but
coverage should remain scattered with near normal moisture levels
around 1.8 inches observed from satellite precipitable water
estimates. The environment is not as conducive for strong storms
due to warm mid level temperatures and little shear observed in
the environment, but some locally heavy rain is possible due to
the slow moving nature of storms.

Temperatures have peaked in the low to mid 90s along I-95 before
the Atlantic seabreeze pushed inland today, bringing heat index
values into the 100 to 105 degree range. Lows temperatures tonight
should be in the upper 70s along the coast and in the mid 70s
over inland NE FL and SE GA.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Thursday, high pressure will continue sinking south along the east
coast with light easterly winds area wide. Mid/upper level ridging
over the spine of the Appalachian mountains will move slowly east
into the Atlantic waters and stretch southwest into the Carolinas
on Friday. This pattern will promote drier air over the region
with Precipitable water levels below seasonal averages ranging
from 1.25 and 1.50 inches across SE GA into NE FL. This drier air
will limit rainfall chances to areas west of Highway 301 with only
isolated storms inland closer to the I-75 corridor.

Highs will be near to slightly above normal inland and near normal
along the coast with Hi temperatures on Thursday and Friday in the
low to mid 90s west of Highway 301 and around 90 degrees from the
I-95 corridor to the beaches. Low temperatures on Friday will be
near normal inland in the low 70s and slightly above normal along
the coast with mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Saturday and Sunday, a mid/upper level wave will move south of the
area into central and south Florida with increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms over NE FL with less coverage over SE
GA. This will be due to Precipitable water values rising to near
normal levels of 1.75 to 2.00 inches over NE FL and while lower
values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches linger over SE GA as the wave passes
to our south and then moves west into the Gulf of Mexico.

Monday through Wednesday, moisture levels will remain elevated to
slightly above normal levels over the entire region as surface
winds shift southeasterly in the wake of mid/upper wave passing to
our west into the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, mid level
temperatures will cool towards values of -7 to -8 degree celsius
which will increase the potential for stronger storms into early
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will therefore
spread from NE FL on Monday to include SE GA as well for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Temperatures will begin near normal on Saturday and then rise to
above normal levels Sunday into Wednesday.

.MARINE...

High pressure will reside northeast of the waters through the end
of the week with light winds becoming easterly and drier conditions
offshore. An easterly wave will pass south our local waters late
Friday into Saturday, with increasing shower and thunderstorm
coverage expected this weekend. High pressure will then move east
northeast of the waters over Bermuda early next week bringing
light southeast winds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through midweek. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet into early
next week with long period swells near 8 seconds lingering over
the waters.

Rip Currents: Low risk of Rip currents through tonight with
Moderate risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches on Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  74  93  72  94  72 /  40  20  10  20   0
SSI  80  87  78  89  78 /  10  10  10  20  10
JAX  76  92  75  92  75 /  20  10  20  30  10
SGJ  77  88  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  30  10
GNV  74  93  72  92  73 /  70  20  10  40   0
OCF  74  93  72  92  73 /  60  30  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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