Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
142 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Gulf of Mexico sea breeze front convection is on track and headed
for the coastal waters south of St Augustine. Other sea breeze
front convection should form near I-75 then move east this
afternoon. The MCS/MCV from nrn Al/MS this morning is currently over
western GA and southern Al with the strongest convection near
Dothan. Still expect that convection to move across the region
overnight. Have kept the convection minimal at the fields with BKN
3-5 kft CBs and 4-5sm in TSRA. Future shifts may need to amend
based on developing conditions. SPC has upgraded the severe
threat to Marginal just northwest and west of the main TAF fields
(over south GA and the FL-GA state line).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [832 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Today will be another hazy, hot and humid day with heat index
values of 100 to 105F.

Some convection may develop along the Gulf Sea Breeze front and
move generally eastward with the synoptic flow around the ridge
axis. This should be widely scattered during the day with a 20-30
percent probability.

For this evening, a mesoscale convective system over northern
Mississippi and Alabama will drop southeast toward the region late
this afternoon and overnight. This should give us an early round
of 4th of July fireworks into the night time hours and especially
for the beaches. Expect the system to...
1. be cross the Altamaha River about 6 p.m.
2. move across most of Southeast Georgia between 8 and 10 p.m.
3.then across extreme south GA and along the FL-GA state line
through midnight
4. then crossing into north Florida between midnight and 6 a.m.

The system is strongest in GA and then begins to weaken and break
up over Florida. 50-60 POPs over Southeast Georgia and extreme
north Florida and 20-40 POPs over most of the rest of north
Florida overnight. A few storms may be strong especially along the
leading edge.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

Unsettled pattern continues with a surface and upper-level trough
digging down the east coast into the southeast and lingering over
the region. A series of shortwaves will move along the base of
the trough enhancing lift across the area. Plentiful summertime
heating combined with the rich moisture and enhanced lift aloft
will lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime highs
will begin to slightly lower with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s. Hot and humid conditions will continue to produce afternoon
heat indices near 105F on Thursday.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday]...

A low to mid level low pressure system develops over the
northeastern Gulf states this weekend. Models differ on the
handling of this low. GFS quickly spins up the low over our area
and then strengthens it off our east coast this weekend. Whereas
the ECMWF develops a weak low and has it linger over the area and
moving eastward early next week. Either solution will still keep
ample moisture and lift over the area. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms continue into early next week. Tropical
moisture (PWATs 2+ inches) across the area will continue the
threat of heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week. Highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

.MARINE...

High pressure ridge to the south and troughing to the
north will maintain a west to southwesterly flow the next few
days. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous
through the weekend as an upper level trough develops over the
southeast.

Rip Currents: Low risk through today and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  90  72  89  73 /  40  50  40  80  20
SSI  75  90  76  87  76 /  60  70  50  60  30
JAX  74  93  74  91  74 /  40  60  40  80  20
SGJ  74  92  74  90  74 /  20  50  50  80  20
GNV  74  92  73  90  73 /  10  60  40  80  30
OCF  75  91  74  91  74 /  10  70  50  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

FLZ037-038-138-011800-
Coastal Flagler FL-Putnam FL-Inland Flagler FL-
124 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

* At 123 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  over Crescent City, moving east at 30 mph.

* Winds of 40 to 45 mph are possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Crescent City, Andalusia,
  Beverly Beach and Espanola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2947 8108 2946 8112 2943 8111 2942 8114
      2941 8115 2927 8115 2926 8141 2940 8142
      2940 8143 2938 8145 2935 8156 2953 8157
      2961 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 267DEG 26KT 2945 8147

CORLESS

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