Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT SE GA...

.Near Term.../through Monday/...

Several rounds of strong to severe storms expected this period,
mainly for SE GA. Convection expected to continue moving east
across SE GA this afternoon along a warm front, and could have a
lull in more robust activity this evening as warm front may push
back north. The next round will begin in the overnight period a
few hours before dawn, as the cold front reaches the inland SE GA
counties, then tracks southeast across SE GA through the morning.

The front will move southeast across NE FL Monday
afternoon with scattered convection along it, with limited
potential for stronger storms as better energy to the northeast.

Since expecting more rounds of showers and storms to pass east
across SE GA, will maintain the flash flood watch.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday night through Thursday/...

Cold front will be to the southeast Monday evening as weak high
pressure builds from the northwest. On Tuesday, the region will be
between high pressure to the west northwest, and a secondary cold
front approaching from the northeast. This secondary front should
pass through dry Tuesday evening, as high pressure ridging
strengthens from the northwest to north. This high will move from
the north to the northeast through the day Wednesday. An area of
low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night, with
the high more toward the east. While a few lingering showers will
be possible early Monday night across NE FL, the rest of the
period from Monday night through Wednesday night is expected to be
dry.

The next low pressure system will track just north of the forecast
area Thursday, with a round of showers and storms expected to affect
the region.

Temperatures will trend near normal through Wednesday, then above
Thursday.

&&

.Long Term.../Thursday night through Sunday/...

A cold front will move southeast across the region Thursday night
into Friday morning, with most precipitation associated with this
feature to the south Friday afternoon. Yet another low pressure
system will affect the region over the weekend. Long range models
diverge on timing with that system, so at this time will have
chance for storms in the forecast through the weekend.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

A warm front will be just north of area waters through Tonight, with
storms possible. A cold front will move southeast across area
overnight through Monday. Weak high pressure will build Monday night
into Tuesday. A dry secondary front will move southeast across area
Tuesday night. High pressure will build from north then northeast
Wednesday. The region will be between high pressure to the northeast
and an area of low pressure approaching from the west Wednesday
night. This low pressure system will cross the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Weak high pressure will build for Friday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  68  79  57  80  55 /  70  80   0   0   0
SSI  69  81  63  79  60 /  70  80   0   0   0
JAX  71  85  62  84  60 /  40  60   0   0   0
SGJ  72  84  64  82  62 /  30  50   0  10   0
GNV  72  84  61  84  57 /  30  60   0   0   0
OCF  71  82  62  84  58 /  20  50   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Appling-Bacon-
     Coffee-Jeff Davis-Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

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