Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
802 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The front which was stalled near the state line this morning
lifted northward as a warm front earlier this afternoon and has
essentially merged or been overtaken by another quasi-stationary
front to its north stretching across central GA into the FL
Panhandle approaching weak cold front. In the warm sector to its
south, the area is under mostly southwest low level flow with
juicy dew points in the 70s across all but our northernmost GA
counties. At the mid and upper levels a series of shortwave
troughs will translate eastward through the night across the
region, enhancing lift aloft. With 40 kt 850 mb winds and about 50
kts 0-6 km shear, there's still the potential for isolated severe
weather with thunderstorms that develop ahead of the approaching
front through the night. Damaging winds and hail remain possible,
as is the a brief tornado.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.Short Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Frontal boundary will slowly sink south of the region Thursday
morning, as high pressure builds to the north. Shower chances will
linger Wednesday night into Thursday morning, in association with
the boundary. This high will build to the northeast Thursday night,
then east Friday. As the high builds to the east, the increasingly
warm and moist southeast to south flow will yield the potential for
late day convection Friday. A cold front will approach the region
from the northwest Friday night, then cross during the day Saturday.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday, with
potential for strong storms.

Temperatures will trend below normal through Thursday, with more
seasonal readings expected for Friday, then above Saturday.

.Long Term.../Saturday night through Tuesday/...

Front will continue to move to the southeast Saturday night as high
builds to the north. A warm front will extend east across area from
low pressure developing over the western gulf on Sunday. Rain will
overspread from the west with this warm front, with best potential
over NE FL. This low will continue to track east along the gulf
coast Sunday night, with boundary remaining near stationary over
NE FL. This low will cross forecast area Monday, tracking along the
location of the warm front, with focus of associated precipitation
over NE FL. Could see another round of strong storms with this
system on Monday. High pressure will build to the north Monday
night, then to the east northeast Tuesday. While expecting much of
Monday night and Tuesday to be dry, can not rule out enough moisture
return for convection Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Thursday]

Scattered showers and potentially strong storms continue to move
through the region this evening, with VFR conditions occuring
outside of storm activity. Low ceilings are anticipated
overnight, resulting in IFR and MVFR conditions with storms
progressing through SE GA and NE FL in the early morning hours on
Wednesday. Early morning storms are anticipated for Wednesday with
winds shifting about from out of the SW to more out of the N-NW.

.Marine...

A nearly stationary southwest to northeast oriented frontal boundary
will stretch across area waters through Wednesday night. This
boundary will move to the southeast Thursday morning. High pressure
will build to the north Thursday afternoon, then to the northeast
Thursday night. The high will build to the east Friday. A cold front
will move southeast across the region Saturday, with high pressure
building from the northwest Saturday night. The high will build more
toward the northeast Sunday, as a warm front moves in from the west.

Rip Currents:  Moderate Risk for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  59  68  51  73  51 /  30  30  20   0   0
SSI  66  71  57  69  60 /  50  80  30  10   0
JAX  67  74  57  72  59 /  50  80  40  10  10
SGJ  70  77  59  71  62 /  30  80  50  30  10
GNV  70  75  56  71  57 /  40  80  50  30  10
OCF  71  80  58  71  60 /  10  70  60  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1226 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

FLZ021-035-222-150515-
Southern Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-Gilchrist FL-
1226 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GILCHRIST...
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
EDT...

* At 1226 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northwest of Bell, moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

* Small hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due to
  heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ichetucknee Spring, Fort White, Branford and Hildreth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 8278 2992 8260 2978 8294 2980 8292
      2981 8293 2983 8292 2982 8291 2983 8289
      2988 8287 2990 8290 2989 8292 2995 8292
      2996 8293 2996 8295 3000 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 240DEG 28KT 2985 8302

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

FLZ021-222-150645-
Southern Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-
201 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND
SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

* At 200 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Mayo, moving east at 40 mph.

* Small hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due to
  heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Live Oak, Obrien, Luraville, Mcalpin, Newburn and Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 8324 3037 8297 3002 8270 2998 8296
      2999 8296 3001 8298 3001 8300 3003 8301
      3007 8307 3008 8307 3009 8311 3011 8312
      3010 8314 3011 8316 3009 8319 3012 8323
      3017 8323 3018 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 248DEG 34KT 3002 8325

KB