Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
706 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Friday]
TEMPO TS til 04z as storms approach the east coast this evening.
Convection should weaken by midnight with VCSH for the remainder
of the night. VFR conditions will prevail outside of showers with
brief IFR conditions occurring in heavy downpours. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms expected again for Thursday.
Winds will be from the southeast through tonight and then
southwesterly on Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [344 PM EDT]...

.Near Term.../Thursday night/...

Region will be between high pressure to the east northeast and
tropical storm Sally to the west northwest through Tonight. Bands
of showers and thunderstorms will move north across the area
through Tonight. Could see a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening, with the diurnal heating helping to provide
additional instability. Potential will exist for a few strong
storms to linger into the overnight hours. In general, the
greatest chance for severe storms will be over inland counties.
Being on the east side of the tropical system, potential for
tornadoes will exist with this inland convective activity.

This low will track northeast across central GA, and into SC during
the day Thursday. The associated cold front will move into SE GA
Thursday afternoon. A few strong storms will be possible on
Thursday, especially in the afternoon.

As the low moves further to the northeast Thursday night the cold
front will move southeast into NE FL. A few lingering showers will
be possible Thursday night, otherwise a drying trend will be
anticipated.

Temperatures this period will trend above normal.

.Short Term.../Friday through Sunday/...

The cold front will slowly move southeast across NE FL and into
central FL Friday into Friday night, where it will stall, as high
pressure builds to the north northwest. High pressure
will remain to the north Saturday into Saturday night. A wave of low
pressure will lift northeast from the gulf late Saturday into
Saturday night with much of that energy remaining to the northwest,
as an inverted trough develops along the Atlantic coast. Chances for
showers and storms forecast for Saturday into Saturday night, with
best chance near the coast. Region will be between inverted trough
along the coast, and an elongated upper trough to the northwest
Sunday. A pinch in the pressure gradient caused by the inverted
trough, will lead to enhanced winds, especially across coastal SE
GA.

Temperatures will trend above normal Friday into Friday night, then
below over the weekend.

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Inverted coastal trough will develop into a low Sunday night into
Monday, and track toward the north northeast, as ridge noses into
area from the north northwest. Best chance for showers Sunday night
into Monday will be near the coast, with elevated coastal winds as
well. High pressure will build from the northwest Monday night
through Wednesday. While a few coastal showers will remain possible
Monday night into Tuesday, a noticeably less humid air mass will
bring mainly dry weather for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend below normal this period, with readings
generally about 5 degrees below seasonal averages. Lows in the
middle to upper 50s will become common across inland SE GA Sunday
night through Tuesday night.

.Marine...

Tropical storm Sally will be west northwest of the region through
Tonight with high pressure to the northeast. The low will move
across central GA and into SC Thursday, with high pressure to the
east northeast. As the low tracks further to the northeast a cold
front will move into region Friday. This front will slowly move
southeast across area through Friday night, with high pressure
building to the north. An inverted trough of low pressure will
develop over the western Atlantic Sunday, and build through
Tuesday. This trough will result in elevated conditions.

Rip Currents: SE GA: High Risk continues through at least Thursday
              NE FL: High Risk continues through at least Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  86  72  83  67 /  70  80  40  40  10
SSI  77  88  76  87  72 /  30  90  50  50  30
JAX  75  90  75  90  72 /  50  90  30  60  20
SGJ  77  91  76  91  75 /  30  60  30  60  20
GNV  74  87  74  88  72 /  50  80  40  50  10
OCF  74  87  75  88  73 /  40  60  40  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&