Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
206 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.Near Term.../through Friday night/...

High pressure at the surface will be centered to the southeast
through this evening, with ridging extending northwest into SC. A
moist southeast flow will be expected with this pattern. The west
coast sea breeze is also expected to push to near the I75 corridor
later this afternoon and evening. High pressure at 500mb will also
be centered to the southeast this afternoon and evening. Short wave
energy is expected to move north northeast across area late this
afternoon through Tonight. The combination of diurnal heating, a
moist airmass, convergence along gulf coast sea breeze and short
wave energy will result in an active period of convection this
afternoon through around midnight. The greatest chance for activity
will be across inland FL along the I75 corridor. While convective
chances will decrease Overnight with loss of diurnal heating, the
continued moisture and upper energy moving through could keep some
showers going into the overnight. Rainfall that falls this afternoon
across the I75 corridor will provide low level moisture to aid in
fog development inland overnight, with potential for locally dense
fog over I75 corridor.

The surface and 500mb highs will sink southeast Friday, with flow
becoming more from the south then southwest. With ample moisture in
place, convection will initiate inland Friday afternoon with diurnal
heating. This activity will then push east northeast through the
afternoon/evening on the southwest flow. This activity will likely
strengthen and increase in coverage over eastern counties as it
encounters the east coast sea breeze which should reach near the I95
corridor. Showers and storms are expected to dissipate by around
midnight Friday night with loss of diurnal heating.

Temperatures this period will trend above normal.

&&

.Short Term.../Saturday through Tuesday/...

High pressure will sink to the south Saturday, as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. An upper trough will pivot southeast
across area Saturday afternoon. The flow Saturday will be from the
southwest. The flow should be strong enough to keep the east coast
sea breeze from pushing inland. Convection will be initiated early
Saturday afternoon due to the combination of diurnal heating,
combined with additional instability under the upper trough. This
activity will then spread east through the mid afternoon into
evening, before dissipating toward midnight with loss of diurnal
heating.

High pressure will build back from the southeast as cold frontal
boundary to the north lifts toward the northeast Saturday night. The
high will sink back to the south southeast Sunday, as an area of low
pressure develops in the base of the cold frontal boundary across
the southeastern US. This area of low pressure is expected to linger
over the southeastern US through Tuesday as well, as high pressure
remains to the south/southeast. Due to the proximity of this area of
low pressure, above normal precipitation chances anticipated for
Sunday through Tuesday, with greatest chances during the afternoon
and evening hours.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.Long Term.../Tuesday night through Thursday/...

Surface high pressure to the east of the area with ridging extending
across central FL through this period. Surface troughing will be
located over the southeastern US. Daily rounds of mainly afternoon
and evening convection anticipated this period.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

A ridge will extend across the region from a high centered to the
southeast through Friday. This high will move further to the
southeast Saturday as a cold front moves into the southeastern US.
Troughing will linger to the north northwest into early next week,
as high holds to the south southeast.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Risk Friday
              NE FL: Moderate Risk Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  75  90  75  89  74 /  20  20  20  60  10
SSI  81  89  78  91  77 /   0  30  20  50  20
JAX  77  93  76  93  76 /  10  30  20  60  10
SGJ  78  91  75  92  76 /  10  30  20  50  20
GNV  75  91  75  91  75 /  60  30  40  60  20
OCF  75  90  75  91  75 /  60  30  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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