Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

...INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Hot and Humid conds early this afternoon with peak Heat Indices in
the 104-108 range. St Simons Island was 91/79 with 108F Heat Index.
These conditions will give way to scattered showers/storms mainly
across SE GA and coastal NE FL from the US 301 corridor to I-95.
Still expect a few strong to isolated severe storms with peak wet
microburst winds of 40-60 mph possible, along with locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning. Some small hail still possible with
steep lapse rates aloft as 500mb temps close to -7C/-8C. Storm
motion generally towards the East-Northeast 10-15 mph. Activity
will linger over inland areas of SE GA due to outflows and sea
breeze fronts pushing inland until around midnight. Typical muggy
overnight lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near
80 degrees along the coast/St Johns River.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Main story in the short term is slow increase back towards
numerous to widespread showers during the afternoon hours on
Monday and Tuesday as weak High Pressure ridge aloft will be
replaced by amplifying trof over the SE US which will rotate into
SE GA/NE FL and bring abundant and deep tropical moisture levels
with Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) over 2 inches. This
combined with light westerly steering flow, cool temps aloft at
500mb of -7C/-8C for mid August and inland moving sea breeze
fronts will lead to 50-70% rainfall coverage on Monday afternoon
and 60-80% rainfall coverage on Tuesday afternoon, along with
enough atmospheric moisture for a shower/storm at anytime through
the period. Max Temps in the lower/middle 90s by early afternoon
will continue to support peak Heat Indices/Feels Like temps
around 105 degrees for most locations. Strong to isolated severe
storms will be possible each afternoon with gusty winds of 40-60
mph, but the slower storm motion of 10 mph or less will slowly
increase to locally heavy rainfall threat as storm rainfall totals
continue to add up through the week.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Wed/Thu...Numerous to widespread showers/storms will continue as
decaying mid/upper level trof across SE GA/NE FL will continue to
support daily rainfall chances of 60-90%, locally heavy rainfall
and near normal temps through this period with highs in the lower
90s and lows in the 70s. Southwest steering flow will continue
along with PWATs of 2 inches or more to support risk of heavy
rainfall.

Fri/Sat/Sun...A mid level ridge of high pressure will build in
from the SE/Wrn Atlc and this will slowly bring in a somewhat
drier airmass aloft with PWATs falling to slightly less than 2
inches and a shift of the steering flow to the South-Southeast.
This subtle shift will lower daily rainfall chances into the
40-70% range with storm activity further inland from the Atlc
coastal areas. Temps generally near to slightly above normal with
highs in the lower/middle 90s and lows in the 70s and Heat Indices
creeping back close to 105 degrees. Continued slow storm motion
will continue the threat of locally heavy rainfall, but the threat
will shift more inland each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Cumulus cloud streets have developed on schedule with bases
between 3-4 KFT. Convection is starting to develop just east of
Cecil Airport (KVQQ) and will continue to expand in areal
coverage so will introduce a tempo group for KVQQ. Can see the
Atlantic sea breeze on radar just coming across the Intracoastal
Waterway and that should begin to squeeze the environment across
the central peninsula later this afternoon. So everything looks to
be on track right now with the previous aviation discussion
update.

&&

.MARINE...

Mainly offshore Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2 to 3
feet and local sea breezes along the coast through the mid week
time frame as High pressure ridge remains just south of the waters
and low pressure trof remains north of the waters over the SE US.
A slight shift northward in the high pressure ridge axis towards
the end of the week over the waters will lead to shift in winds to
south-southeast at 10-15 knots with seas remaining 2-3 ft.

Rip Currents: Mainly low risk rip currents expected early this
week as surf/breakers only in the 1-2 feet range and mainly
offshore Southwest flow with afternoon sea breeze at 10-15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  94  73  93  73 /  40  60  50  80  60
SSI  78  90  77  90  77 /  30  60  50  70  60
JAX  75  95  75  94  75 /  20  70  40  80  50
SGJ  76  93  75  93  75 /  10  50  50  70  50
GNV  74  95  74  94  74 /  20  40  30  70  40
OCF  74  95  73  94  74 /  30  40  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>