Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
259 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer Atlantic ridge axis was across south FL with broad
troughing WNW of the local area. This pattern continued mean layer
1000-500 mb light SSW flow which pushed the more dominant west
coast sea breeze farther inland this afternoon over a very moist
(PWAT near 2 inches) and unstable airmass. West coast sea breeze
convection just west of the St. Johns River basin in NE FL was
about to converge with the weaker inland progressing east coast
sea breeze, which will bring strong to potential pulse severe
storms across NE FL near near the St. Johns River basin to I-95
over the next few hours. Across SE GA, a weak trough axis draped
SW to NE across the area served as the foci for convection this
afternoon, with deeper storms now nearing the I-95 corridor about
to meet the east coast sea breeze near the Golden Isles where a
few stronger cells will also be possible. Tstorm hazards this
afternoon include wet downburst winds of 40-60 mph and very heavy
rainfall (rates 2-4 inches/hr), mainly along boundary mergers.
This activity will press eastward toward the local Atlantic coast
through late afternoon/early evening with a gradual weakening
trend as low level forcing weakens and diurnal instability fades.
Stratiform rainfall lingering over the area will gradually fade
between 7-10 pm with a gradual drift offshore of the local
Atlantic coast.

Mostly dry, but continued humid conditions, expected after
midnight tonight with mild lows in the low/mid 70s to upper 70s
near the coast under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Light SSW
winds continue through sunrise Sat, which may once again focus a
few showers and isolated t'storms from the Gulf Coast region inland
toward the I-75 corridor of the Suwannee River Valley by daybreak.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep tropical moisture with precipitable water (PWAT) above climo
(1.8"+) will linger across across the region as a mean layer
1000-500 mb ridge across south FL migrates northward across
central FL through Sunday. This will keep frontal systems well
north and west of the region and favors active diurnally enhanced
sea breezes. SW steering flow will be light (< 10 kts) with the
ridge axis building northward toward the local area, and this
regime favors morning convection near the Gulf Coast drifting
slowly inland through mid-morning with dry conditions for the east
coast. By midday as convective temps are achieved, more airmass
shower activity will begin to pop inland between both the west
coast sea breeze and developing east coast sea breeze. Sea breeze
and outflow boundary mergers will focus across the interior of the
forecast area each afternoon and early evening generally between
the Highway 301 corridor and the St. Johns River, with a slight
drift back toward the east coast under mean layer SW flow.
Convection will fade into the evening with the less of diurnal
instability with just a rogue shower overnight possible mainly
near the Gulf Coast region due to such a saturated airmass.

Main tstorm hazards this period will be heavy rainfall due to
such high atmospheric moisture content and slow, erratic storm
motion along boundary mergers. There will also continue to be wet
downburst potential with seasonably cool mid level temps (500 mb
temps of -6 to -8 degC) over a hot low airmass which will create
steeper low level lapse rates.

Above normal temperatures expected as mean layer ridging
strengthens over the FL peninsula. Highs will range in the low/mid
90s inland to near 90 coast before the east coast sea breeze
advances inland. Sticky dew pts in the mid/upper 70s combined with
the dry bulb temps will create heat index values of 105-110 degF.
Nighttime lows will trend above normal as well in the mid/upper
70s for most areas.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Elevated rain chances through at least mid-week will continue
with weak SSW steering flow and high moisture content continuing
over the area. A transition to more SSE steering is expected Thu
into Fri with a more dominant east coast sea breeze regime as the
mean layer ridge lifts across SE GA where the higher PWAT plume
will linger and favor elevated rain chances, while lower rain
chances are expected south of the ridge axis across much of NE FL
where PWATs are expected to trend below normal. This pattern
change will bring morning coastal showers and possibly a tstorm
toward the Atlantic coast, then clearing from the east into the
afternoon with the focus for afternoon/evening storms inland
across the Suwannee River Valley and SE GA.

Temperatures expected to trend near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Moist SW flow still on track for TEMPO of thunderstorms at all TAF
sites with IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds this afternoon,
mainly from the 18-21Z time frame at GNV/VQQ/JAX/CRG and slightly
later at 19-22Z time frame at SSI/SGJ with VFR conds and high
clouds returning for the after 00z time frame through the
remainder of the period as tomorrow's activity will be slightly
later and after the 18z cutoff. Fog potential fairly low tonight
and is not included in this TAF set.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula with surface
fronts remaining north of the local waters. This will continue
predominant SSW winds 10 kts or less with the Atlantic sea breeze
setting up each afternoon veering winds onshore and increasing
speeds to 10-15 kts into the early evening. Winds will back SSW
through the night with winds decreasing to 10 kts or less. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will approach the waters from the west
east afternoon and continue into the evening, gradually pushing
farther offshore through the night. Combined seas have lowered
into the 3 ft or less range.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for NE FL beaches this weekend. Low
risk expected for SE GA this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Weak transport winds and lower mixing heights under strengthening
high pressure will create low daytime dispersion across NE FL
despite unstable low level conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  94  75  95  73 /  20  50  20  60  30
SSI  77  90  78  91  77 /  20  30  20  50  20
JAX  74  94  75  95  74 /  30  50  30  60  30
SGJ  75  91  76  92  75 /  30  40  30  50  20
GNV  73  94  75  94  74 /  30  60  30  60  30
OCF  73  94  75  93  74 /  30  50  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

GAZ152>154-165-166-264-072015-
Northeastern Charlton GA-Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-
Coastal Glynn GA-Brantley GA-Coastal Camden GA-
334 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CAMDEN...SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN...
SOUTHEASTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

* At 334 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Woodbine, moving
  northeast at 25 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph and minor flooding due to heavy
  rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Woodbine, Waverly, Tarboro, Dover Bluff and Colesburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8141 3079 8185 3079 8187 3109 8204
      3118 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 247DEG 21KT 3100 8186

KB