Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
244 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.Short Term.../through Wednesday/...

The region will be under the influence of a ridge of high pressure
at the surface and at 500mb through Sunday. However, short wave
energy is expected to pass through the upper ridge, which along
with diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions will provide
enough instability for activity this afternoon, and again Sunday
afternoon. For this afternoon, activity on the west coast sea
breeze will continue to work its way east across the forecast
area, with outflow boundaries helping to initiate further activity
down stream, which will all end up converging on the east coast
sea breeze of NE FL later this afternoon, where the greatest
potential for storms will exist. A fairly strong short wave passes
through overnight tonight, so can not rule out a few showers
during the night as well.

The surface high will sink to the south on Monday, as a trough of
low pressure develops under an upper trough, from northeast to
southwest across the southeastern US. This troughing will be in
place into Tuesday and Wednesday as well, with waves of energy
passing through the base of the upper trough. Increasing moisture is
expected next week, with convective chances on the rise.

Temperatures will continue above normal through at least Tuesday,
but may be closer to seasonal average on Wednesday due to
anticipated cloud and convective coverage.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Weak surface throughing under a building upper ridge is expected
this period. The main potential for convection will be in the
afternoon and evening hours due to diurnal heating and sea breeze
interactions. Best support for convection this period will be on
Thursday, then, with less upper support the coverage should
average scattered later this period.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure will stretch across the region through Sunday. This
high will move to the south southeast Monday, as a trough of low
pressure stretches across the southeastern US. This trough will
be most pronounced through Wednesday then weaken.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Sunday
              NE FL: Moderate Today, Low Sunday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  95  74  94  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
SSI  76  91  77  92  78 /  20  20  10  10  20
JAX  74  97  74  97  77 /  50  20   0  10  10
SGJ  75  94  75  94  75 /  50  20  10  10  10
GNV  73  95  72  97  74 /  20  10   0  20   0
OCF  74  95  73  96  75 /  20  10   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
315 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

FLZ021-222-272000-
Southern Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-
315 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN
SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

* At 315 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Obrien, or 8 miles east of
  Mayo, moving east at 20 mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts
  of 50 to 55 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall up to
  2 inches is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lake City, Ichetucknee Spring, Columbia, Five Points, Watertown,
  Obrien, Mcalpin, Luraville, Branford and Hildreth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 8257 3007 8253 3003 8253 3001 8257
      2999 8258 2997 8256 2992 8259 2996 8295
      2999 8296 3001 8298 3001 8300 3008 8307
      3009 8311 3011 8312 3010 8314 3011 8316
      3009 8318 3010 8321 3012 8323 3017 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 267DEG 18KT 3008 8303

HESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

FLZ033-037-038-140-240-272015-
Central Marion FL-Putnam FL-Inland Flagler FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
Eastern Marion FL-
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FLAGLER...SOUTH CENTRAL
ST. JOHNS...NORTHEASTERN MARION AND PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

* At 326 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Melrose Landing to near Orange Springs. Movement was east at 25
  mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts
  of 50 to 55 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall up to
  2 inches is possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Palatka, Crescent City, Interlachen, Pomona Park, Hastings, East
  Palatka, Andalusia, Lake Delancy, Melrose Landing and Federal
  Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2928 8137 2929 8142 2940 8142 2940 8143
      2938 8145 2934 8163 2942 8201 2965 8201
      2984 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 266DEG 21KT 2963 8196 2945 8195

HESS

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