Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the period. West to
northwest winds 5-10 knots will become southeast along the coast
as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Storms may get near the
east coast northeast Florida TAF sites in the late afternoon and
early evening. Light winds are expected overnight. Northwest winds
are expected on Friday at 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [130 PM EDT]...

.Short Term.../through Monday/...

Surface high pressure ridge will extend across region Today, while
the area remains in the base of an upper trough. While the surface
high will help to suppress convection, short wave energy moving
through the upper trough coupled with diurnal instability and sea
breeze interactions will combine to provide afternoon and evening
convection.

The best chance for convection this afternoon will be near the
GA/FL line, which is where the main axis of upper energy will be,
and where best surface convergence is located. Potential for a few
strong to severe storms will exist this afternoon into evening,
primarily near the GA/FL line. The extent of cloud cover that has
been present over SE GA this morning and early afternoon will be
a limiting factor to extent of convective coverage there.

Ridging at the surface and aloft builds for Friday. Still can not
rule out afternoon convection due to diurnal instability, sea breeze
interactions, and weak short wave energy, but the chance will be
lower than climatological normal.

On Saturday, the surface high pressure ridge will remain in place,
but an upper trough will move in from the northwest in the
afternoon. Due to the upper energy the main chance for storms
Saturday will be over SE GA.

Surface ridge remains in place Sunday, as the upper trough flattens
out somewhat. Waves are expected to pass through the upper trough
Sunday, helping to enhance thunderstorm potential, which will be
initiated by diurnal instability aided by sea breeze interactions.

Surface high pressure ridge sinks to the southeast Monday, with weak
upper ridging remaining. A surface trough is expected to develop
over the southeastern US, which will extend into GA. Mainly
diurnally driven convection expected.

Temperatures this period will continue to trend above seasonal
averages.

.Long Term.../Monday night through Thursday/...

A consistent pattern expected this period, with surface high
pressure ridge to the southeast, and persistent surface trough
extending down the southeast US coastal states into GA, and an upper
trough extending into area from the northeast. Daily rounds of
scattered to numerous storms anticipated with activity initiating
in the heat of the day. Passing waves aloft will provide
additional support for convection, along with sea breeze
interactions.

Temperatures will continue above normal Tuesday, then near normal
Wednesday and Thursday.

.Marine...

Surface high pressure ridge will be over the region through the
weekend. The high will sink to the south southeast early next week,
as a trough of low pressure develops and extends across the
southeastern US states.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Friday
              NE FL: Moderate through Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  94  71  96  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
SSI  76  89  75  91  75 /  20  10  10  10  20
JAX  74  96  74  97  75 /  30  10   0  10  10
SGJ  75  90  74  91  73 /  30   0   0  10  10
GNV  74  96  74  98  73 /  10  10   0  20  10
OCF  72  97  74  98  72 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
629 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

FLZ025-032-125-252300-
Inland Duval FL-Clay FL-Coastal Duval FL-
629 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHERN
DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  near Normandy, or 8 miles northwest of Orange Park, moving east at
  25 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jacksonville, Orange Park, Unf, Mandarin, Arlington, Baymeadows,
  Ortega, Craig Field, Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace and Cecil Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 8149 3010 8150 3011 8154 3012 8154
      3012 8159 3013 8160 3013 8161 3020 8192
      3035 8192 3037 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 272DEG 21KT 3025 8181

CORLESS