Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
146 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.Short Term.../through Sunday/...

A surface trough and an upper short wave will combine with diurnal
instability to generate scattered to numerous storms this afternoon
and evening. The best chance for this activity will be over SE GA
closer to the best axis of the upper wave. A west to east convergent
band has developed near the GA/FL line as low level flow over NE FL
is largely southwest, and flow over SE GA west northwest. This band
will be initial focus for afternoon activity, with coverage then
spreading across SE GA. Convective activity will decrease later this
evening, with loss of diurnal heating. Surface high pressure will
build across the region Thursday into Friday. A series of 500mb
short waves will move east across SE GA Thursday into Friday. While
the surface high will provide subsidence, diurnal heating coupled
with additional instability provided by upper wave will yield
convective chances, but the chance will be lower than normal.

On Saturday and Sunday, surface high pressure remains in place.
Convective chances will remain a little below normal, with isolated
to scattered activity initiating due to sea breeze interactions and
diurnal instability. Weak upper short wave energy will add to the
afternoon instability.

Temperatures will trend above normal through this period. The
warmest day for coastal communities will be Thursday, as the
westerly flow will help keep the sea breeze from pushing too far
inland. The sea breeze will have an easier time pushing inland
Friday, as the flow is more onshore, and will continue to move
inland over the weekend as the flow becomes more southerly. So for
Thursday, lower to mid 90s to extend east of I95, with highs closer
to 90 east of I95 over the weekend.

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

The region will be between an elongated area of high pressure
extending across south Florida and a trough that will linger
over the southeastern US this period. The upper flow will be fairly
flat Monday, so convective initiation will be driven by diurnal
instability and sea breeze interactions. On Tuesday and Wednesday,
an upper trough moves into region which will help destabilize the
airmass, leading to enhanced chances for convection.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.Marine...

Surface high pressure will be over the region through the weekend,
then become centered to the east southeast early next week. A trough
of low pressure will persist across the southeastern US early next
week.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate risk on Thursday
              NE FL: Moderate risk on Thursday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  70  91  72  93  73 /  60  20  10  20  10
SSI  74  90  76  90  76 /  40  20  10  10  10
JAX  72  96  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
SGJ  74  93  75  91  75 /  40  20  10  10  10
GNV  73  96  73  97  74 /   0  20   0  20  10
OCF  72  96  73  97  74 /   0  20   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
435 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

GAZ149-163-250-242115-
Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Northern Ware GA-
435 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN WARE AND NORTH CENTRAL CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

* At 435 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Cogdell, or near Argyle, moving
  northeast at 20 mph.

* Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cogdell, Millwood and Axson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 8281 3117 8279 3129 8277 3128 8254
      3114 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 233DEG 17KT 3114 8273

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
440 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

GAZ162-163-242115-
Clinch GA-Echols GA-
440 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ECHOLS AND SOUTHWESTERN CLINCH
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

* At 439 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Statenville, moving
  east at 25 mph.

* Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Statenville and Needmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8311 3080 8311 3088 8267 3062 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 266DEG 23KT 3074 8292

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
508 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

GAZ162-163-350-364-242145-
Clinch GA-Western Charlton GA-Echols GA-Southern Ware GA-
508 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS...SOUTH
CENTRAL WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH AND WEST CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

* At 507 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Needmore, or near Fargo, moving
  east at 30 mph.

* Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fargo, Stephen Foster State Park and Needmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 8268 3080 8268 3086 8229 3059 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 269DEG 27KT 3073 8263

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
527 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

GAZ151-152-250-242215-
Pierce GA-Brantley GA-Northern Ware GA-
527 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIERCE...WEST CENTRAL
BRANTLEY AND EAST CENTRAL WARE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

* At 527 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Boggy Bay, or near Waycross,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Penny size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and wind
  gusts up to 50 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waycross, Blackshear, Braganza, Boggy Bay and Needham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8236 3118 8246 3139 8218 3122 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 236DEG 22KT 3117 8232

KB

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