Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
947 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.UPDATE...

Persistent strong storms and showers continue to move through the
forecast area with severe storms still progressing across
southeast Georgia. The severe Georgian storms are currently near
and south of the Altamaha River moving southeastward, possessing
the potential for tornadic activity, torrential rain, and hail.
Storms are expected to clear out overnight with dry conditions for
most areas through tomorrow morning. Potential for inland fog and
low level clouds on Saturday morning which is expected to lift up
after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [817 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection firing along the sea breeze boundary, as well as along
a boundary running from about Savannah to Cross City. Southeast of
the boundary, dew points in the 70s, while low to mid 60s to the
northwest of it. Morning sounding was near 1.5 inches
precipitable water, while Tallahassee was near 1 inch. Been some
hail reported in southeast Georgia with these storms. Would expect
evening dissipation as usual, with near normal temps expected.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Drier air gradually works into the area...more so on Sunday than
tomorrow. Scattered convection still possible as northern stream
trough continues to slide east, along with the usual Gulf and
Atlantic sea breeze collisions. Will need to monitor high temps,
especially on Sunday as cloud cover and humidities will be lower.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

No major changes made to previous forecast, so the morning
discussion is still relevant...as follows.

The dry and subsident air mass will begin to erode by Monday
afternoon as southwesterly low and mid level flow gradually
strengthens downstream of an upstream trough that will be
digging southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Widely scattered convection may develop late on Monday afternoon
and through the early evening hours across the southern portions
of the St. Johns River basin, where deeper moisture will reside
and sea breezes are expected to collide, with only isolated
coverage elsewhere. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will climb to the
mid 90s inland and around 90 at the Atlantic coast, with afternoon
heat index values of 100-105.

Diurnal convective coverage will then gradually increase, with
widely scattered afternoon and evening convection on Tuesday
and then scattered to numerous coverage for Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Activity could linger well into the evening hours
beginning around midweek as temperatures aloft begin to cool off
and deeper moisture overspreads our area from west to east.
Thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor will likely pulse and become
strong as activity intersects a pinned Atlantic sea breeze
boundary. Prevailing west-southwest low and mid level flow will
result in continued hot temperatures before afternoon convection
develops, with low to mid 90s expected region-wide on Wednesday
and Thursday. Increasing humidity levels will drive heat index
values up towards 105 degrees by midweek. Lows next week will
remain in the 70s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

Strong storms and showers will continue to build and move eastward
through NE Florida and in SE Georgia, near the Altamaha River
basin. Convection will eventually disperse late tonight with
mostly VFR conditions overnight with potential for patchy fog and
lower ceilings early on Saturday morning. Conditions will clear
after sunrise.

.MARINE...

Main issue will be convective development, with prevailing winds
remaining 10-15 knots or lower with seas 2-4 feet. The days with
the least convection will be Sunday/Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot temperatures and less thunderstorm coverage this weekend
will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to
near 40 percent at all inland locations on Saturday and Sunday.
Light westerly transport winds are forecast on Saturday, with
gradually strengthening southwesterly transport winds forecast on
Sunday, resulting in good dispersion values for inland locations.
The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will move well inland both
days, resulting in onshore winds sustained at 10-15 mph at
coastal locations during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  68  90  70  93  72 /  50  10  10  20  10
SSI  73  85  74  89  74 /  10  10   0  10  10
JAX  70  90  72  93  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
SGJ  70  87  72  90  73 /  20   0   0  10  10
GNV  68  92  70  94  70 /  60  10  10  20  10
OCF  70  92  71  93  72 /  40   0   0  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
847 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

GAZ133-135-136-200130-
Appling GA-Jeff Davis GA-Wayne GA-
847 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS
AND APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

* At 846 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Odum, or 8 miles southeast of
  Surrency, moving east at 15 mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts
  up to 50 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jesup, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Graham, Surrency, Gardi, Plant Hatch,
  Odum, Doctortown and Pine Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8238 3194 8238 3194 8227 3182 8201
      3179 8199 3179 8195 3167 8185 3165 8181
      3166 8181 3161 8177 3158 8170 3146 8162
      3142 8175 3161 8222 3184 8265 3196 8253
      3195 8249 3197 8250 3197 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 280DEG 12KT 3165 8207

HESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
912 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

GAZ136-151-200200-
Pierce GA-Wayne GA-
912 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* At 912 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Screven, or 10 miles west of
  Jesup, moving south at 10 mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts
  of 50 to 55 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jesup, Screven, Offerman and Broadhurst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8194 3141 8180 3136 8199 3137 8203
      3137 8204 3136 8204 3135 8203 3133 8210
      3157 8214 3160 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 343DEG 7KT 3155 8205

HESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
933 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

GAZ134-135-151-200215-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-
933 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIERCE...BACON AND
CENTRAL APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

* At 933 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Baxley, moving
  east at 10 mph.

* Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, wind gusts
  of 50 to 55 mph, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Baxley, Alma, Surrency and New Lacy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8213 3166 8213 3135 8232 3146 8250
      3147 8250 3147 8251 3153 8260 3156 8260
      3156 8263 3159 8263 3167 8258 3167 8252
      3173 8252 3174 8253 3179 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 267DEG 9KT 3169 8243

HESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1003 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     HAIL             SCREVEN                 31.48N 82.02W
06/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       WAYNE              GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA
            NEAR HORTENSE ROAD.

&&

RBRICKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW SCREVEN            31.53N 82.07W
06/19/2020                   Wayne              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE LIMBS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BEING
            DOWN ALONG 9 RUN RD. EMERGENCY CREWS ARE WORKING TO
            REMOVE DEBRIS.

&&

WCORLESS

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