Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
416 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection firing along the sea breeze boundary, as well as along
a boundary running from about Savannah to Cross City. Southeast of
the boundary, dew points in the 70s, while low to mid 60s to the
northwest of it. Morning sounding was near 1.5 pinche precipitable
water, while Tallahassee was near 1 inch. Been some hail reported
in southeast Georgia with these storms. Would expect evening
dissipation as usual, with near normal temps expected.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Drier air gradually works into the area...moreso on Sunday than
tomorrow. Scattered convection still possible as northern stream
trough continues to slide east, along with the usual Gulf and
Atlantic sea breeze collisions. Will need to monitor high temps,
especially on Sunday as cloud cover and humidities will be lower.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

No major changes made to previous forecast, so the morning
discussion is still relevant...as follows.

The dry and subsident air mass will begin to erode by Monday
afternoon as southwesterly low and mid level flow gradually
strengthens downstream of an upstream trough that will be
digging southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Widely scattered convection may develop late on Monday afternoon
and through the early evening hours across the southern portions
of the St. Johns River basin, where deeper moisture will reside
and sea breezes are expected to collide, with only isolated
coverage elsewhere. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will climb to the
mid 90s inland and around 90 at the Atlantic coast, with afternoon
heat index values of 100-105.

Diurnal convective coverage will then gradually increase, with
widely scattered afternoon and evening convection on Tuesday
and then scattered to numerous coverage for Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Activity could linger well into the evening hours
beginning around midweek as temperatures aloft begin to cool off
and deeper moisture overspreads our area from west to east.
Thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor will likely pulse and become
strong as activity intersects a pinned Atlantic sea breeze
boundary. Prevailing west-southwest low and mid level flow will
result in continued hot temperatures before afternoon convection
develops, with low to mid 90s expected region-wide on Wednesday
and Thursday. Increasing humidity levels will drive heat index
values up towards 105 degrees by midweek. Lows next week will
remain in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Handling direct impacts to terminals by TSRA with amendments, and
expect most convection to dissipate by 01-02z. Convection Saturday
will probably only be just getting going by the end of the 18z
period. Only mention of restricted visibilities overnight for now
is at KVQQ, where 3SM BR is mentioned.

&&

.MARINE...

Main issue will be convective development, with prevailing winds
remaining 10-15 knots or lower with seas 2-4 feet. The days with
the least convection will be Sunday/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot temperatures and less thunderstorm coverage this weekend
will result in minimum relative humidity values falling to
near 40 percent at all inland locations on Saturday and Sunday.
Light westerly transport winds are forecast on Saturday, with
gradually strengthening southwesterly transport winds forecast on
Sunday, resulting in good dispersion values for inland locations.
The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will move well inland both
days, resulting in onshore winds sustained at 10-15 mph at
coastal locations during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  68  90  71  93  72 /  20  30  10  20  10
SSI  72  87  74  89  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
JAX  70  92  72  93  72 /  10  40  10  20  10
SGJ  70  87  72  90  73 /  10  30  10  10  10
GNV  69  92  69  94  70 /  30  30  10  20  10
OCF  70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  10  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

FLZ124-GAZ165-166-192045-
Coastal Nassau FL-Inland Camden GA-Coastal Camden GA-
351 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL NASSAU AND SOUTHERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

* At 351 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Woodbine, moving southeast at
  10 mph.

* Penny size hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  St. Marys, Kingsland, Woodbine, Kings Bay Base, Harrietts Bluff and
  Colesburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8164 3072 8167 3073 8166 3075 8167
      3075 8168 3074 8167 3075 8170 3090 8187
      3105 8174 3090 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 308DEG 7KT 3093 8174

KLG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
419 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

FLZ032-033-037-192100-
Putnam FL-Clay FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
419 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ST. JOHNS...NORTH
CENTRAL PUTNAM AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 419 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near George's Lake, or 12 miles
  southwest of Green Cove Springs, moving southeast at 5 mph.

* Small hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due to
  heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bostwick, Bardin, Picolata and Carraway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2985 8184 2997 8169 2986 8149 2968 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 330DEG 5KT 2983 8177

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

FLZ025-124-125-192130-
Inland Duval FL-Coastal Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-
438 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL NASSAU AND
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* At 438 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Arlington, moving northeast at
  20 mph.

* Penny size hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jacksonville, Arlington, Yulee, Oceanway, Craig Field, Little
  Talbot Island, Fort Caroline and Tallyrand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8159 3039 8175 3065 8156 3051 8138
      3039 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 223DEG 15KT 3038 8162

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
444 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

FLZ033-038-133-138-192130-
Coastal Flagler FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Flagler FL-
Inland St. Johns FL-
444 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN
ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* At 443 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Bunnell, moving north at 15
  mph.

* Penny size hail, winds in excess of 45 mph, and minor flooding due
  to heavy rainfall is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Palm Coast, Flagler Beach, Bunnell, Marineland, Beverly Beach and
  Espanola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2933 8120 2938 8140 2972 8134 2968 8115
      2953 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 195DEG 14KT 2943 8128

KLG