Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
353 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INLAND AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Narrow plume of moisture, noted by PWATs of 1.9 to 2.1 inches, is
along a nearly stationary front located from the coastal Carolinas
to the central FL panhandle. Numerous to widespread convection is
expected along this boundary and radar imagery so far shows very
active showers/storms from around Jesup-Waycross-Homerville to
near Valdosta. Winds from sfc to about 500 mb are very light, less
than 10 kt, which will result in very heavy rainfall where these
showers and storms persist, and so localized flooding is
possible. Some pockets of mid level dry air will result in a risk
of downburst wind gusts in the stronger storms, probably upwards
of 40-50 mph. In addition, a shortwave trough will shift southward
over AL and GA and help to maintain some lift along this front
tonight, while it very gradually shifts a little southward.
However, convective vigor anticipated to be much weaker after
midnight as most of the airmass will have been worked over. Having
said that though, we may see a resurgence of a few more showers
or even thunderstorms in the early morning hours Saturday morning
near the coast and over marine waters as shortwave moves southeast
toward the forecast area, and lingering outflow boundaries and
lingering frontal boundary provide low level triggers. Lows
tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary/zone will be roughly located
from near the Savannah area southwest to just west of Tallahassee
during the weekend. A weak frontal wave may form along the front
over nrn FL or southeast GA for a brief time, which may enhance
low level convergence during the afternoons. These features, along
with daily sea breezes and PWATs around the 1.5 to 1.9 inch
range, will yield scattered to numerous showers and storms each
day. Best rain chances will likely focus from coastal southeast GA
to the Suwannee Valley area and southward toward Gainesville and
Ocala areas.

For Monday, the boundary expected to move a little southeastward,
perhaps even moving into portions of the coastal waters. With
drier and a bit more stable air working into parts of southeast
GA, the best rain chances will start to shift into northeast FL
for Monday, but still have scattered POPs over most of the area
with chances at 30-50 percent.

Main concerns for Saturday and Sunday will be locally heavy rainfall,
with localized flooding a possibility. Highest rain amounts look
to be focused over the parts of the Okefenokee Swamp to Lake City,
Live Oak, and around Needmore and Statenville. Isolated strong/locally
severe downbursts also possible per model soundings showing DCAPE
of about 700-1000 J/kg.

Lows will be near normal this period, with highs a little below
seasonal averages due to clouds and precip.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

Mid/upper level cut-off low centered over the Carolinas Tue-Wed will
slowly lift east or northeast Thu and Fri, with best forcing and moisture
located to the north of the forecast region. An associated trough/front
is expected to be just east of the area over the wrn Atlantic and moves
slowly east through Fri. Weak sfc high pressure over the forecast area
and relatively low mean deep layer RH suggests low POPs. Main forcing
for showers and thunderstorms chances appear to be a couple of
vort lobes rotating around this upper level low and sea breeze
boundaries. For now, will keep POPS around the 20-30 percent range
for mainly diurnal showers and storms, but thinking these may
even be lower given dry air aloft and dewpoints that may be in the
lower 60s (possibly even some upper 50s dewpoints over inland
southeast GA by ECMWF model Tue-Fri). Best chances rain look to be
over northeast FL Tue and Wed, with overall lower chances Thu-
Fri.

Temps will be at or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and early
this evening near the GNV and VQQ terminals, with GNV the most
likely terminal to have MVFR conditions during the early evening
hours. This activity could also approach the JAX and SSI terminals
after 21Z, but confidence was too low to include in the latest
TAF issuance. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the
overnight period. Another round of convection may develop after
09Z near SSI, with a southward storm motion potentially bringing
this activity towards the Duval County terminals around or
shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Outside of convection,
southeasterly winds sustained at 10-15 knots will prevail at the
coastal terminals through around 23Z, with south to southeast
winds at 5-10 knots for the inland terminals that will become
calm towards 02Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds to near 10 kt expected to shift a little more
easterly on Saturday as a weak front northwest of the area attempts
to drop a little southward. An east and then northeast wind expected
to develop Sunday into Monday as the Atlantic surface ridge axis
gradually builds to the north and the weak cool front approaches
from the northwest. This front may move into parts of the coastal
waters Monday and likely be in the marine waters by Tuesday before
dissipating by about mid week. Winds and seas will remain below
Caution levels into early next week with chances for showers and
thunderstorms through weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  70  86  67  85  66 /  40  40  20  40  20
SSI  73  83  72  82  71 /  50  50  50  50  30
JAX  72  84  71  85  70 /  40  60  40  60  30
SGJ  72  84  71  83  71 /  30  50  40  60  30
GNV  70  86  69  86  68 /  50  60  30  70  20
OCF  71  87  70  87  69 /  40  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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