Frost Advisory 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
104 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

.UPDATE...

Winds are close to forecast and had a couple of recent gusts of
35-40 mph. Winds just enough to go with a short-fuse wind advisory
for winds of 25 mph gusting to near 40 mph. SCA headline was
raised for the nearshore waters given the gusty winds along the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Main issue are the winds from west-northwest around 15-20 kt with
gusts around 30 kt through about 23z. Highest winds will be from
JAX to SSI where isolated gusts close to 35 kt are possible. Winds
will relax tonight and become light and variable by midnight.
Light northeast and east winds expected through midday Sunday.
VFR will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [901 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A couple of mostly dry 'clipper' like cold fronts will move across
the local area today from the NW. One front was currently pressing
steadily south this hour across SE GA preceded and trailed by a
deck of mid clouds with light showers that were dissipating as the
system pressed farther south. This front will clear the forecast
area through sunrise, with mostly sunny skies to start the day
and increasing WNW winds through the morning becoming breezy by
noon. Sustained speeds near 15 mph across most areas with gusts of
25-35 mph at times as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the next approaching dry front that will slide offshore of SE
Atlantic coast late afternoon/early evening.

Surface high pressure over the GOMEX will build east and settle over
the local forecast area tonight. Clearing skies, calm winds and a dry
low level airmass will bring a light freeze to inland SE GA and our
zones along and north of the I-10 corridor of NE FL tonight, including
inland Nassau and Duval counties where a freeze watch was issued.
Inland frost is likely even outside of the freeze watch area for
much of inland NE Florida and a frost advisory may issued later today.

Temperatures will continue to trend below normal with highs today
in the low/mid 60s. Tonight lows will fall near freezing across
inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor, with slight NNE flow develops
toward sunrise along the coast where temps will be more mild and
range in the upper 30s to near 40 degF.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Predominantly clear conditions on Sunday & Monday, with a slight
chance for showers over parts of northeast Florida Monday as the
effects of high pressure begin to weaken over the region and move
offshore to the east, resulting in a shift in the prevailing flow
to become more out of the west-southwest bringing in higher
moisture levels by Monday. Sunday will be the start of a warming
trend which will carry over into next week, with daily high
temperatures rising from the mid to upper 60s on Sunday up into
the lower to mid 70s on Monday. Overnight low temperatures will
see a similar trend with min temps rising from the 40s up into the
lower & mid 50s on Monday.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

An approaching trough from out of the west-northwest will lead to
strengthening of southwesterly winds on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching line of showers and isolated storms. Models continue
to differ on the timing of the passage of the front, with the GFS
showing the line of convection having moved off to the east by
Thursday morning, while the ECMWF forecast doesn't have the front
completing its passage over the forecast area through until late
Thursday and nearly Friday. Both models are in concurrence on High
pressure settling in over the region by the end of the week,
leading to clearing skies and cool temperatures. The warming trend
will continue into midweek, ahead of the frontal passage, and then
drop down significantly as cold air settles in over the area. High
temperatures are expected reach into the 80s for much of the
forecast area by Wednesday and then drop down into the 60s by the
end of the week. Overnight low temperatures will likewise drop
from the upper 50s and lower 60s down into the 40s, going into the
weekend.

.MARINE...

A couple of mostly dry cold fronts will move southward across the
local waters today and tonight with elevated offshore winds. Small
Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are expected for the
near shore waters today due to WNW winds 15-20 kts with Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) headline for the outer waters where winds
were increasing to 20-25 kts with gusts near 30 kts trailing the
first cold front this morning. Winds will remain elevated through
today, then begin to decrease tonight as high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will build east and over the local waters tonight.
The ridge builds east of the local coast Sunday into Monday.
Southerly winds increase Monday night and remain elevated through
Wednesday between the departing high to the east and the next cold
front approaching from the west with a return of SCEC conditions
expected at this time for the outer waters.

Rip Currents: Low risk today & Sunday for all beaches.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire danger today due to low humidity falling into the
25-30% range, breezy NW winds 15 mph gusting to 25-35 mph at times
and very high dispersion near 100 units. Given elevated fuel
moisture content, red flag conditions are not expected today, but
certainly a 'watch out' day given other critical fire weather
parameters.

.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate river flooding continued along the Altamaha and Ocmulgee
Rivers. Minor flooding continued along portions of the Satilla,
Alabaha and Little Satilla Rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  31  64  41  72  56 /   0   0   0  20  10
SSI  38  60  48  69  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
JAX  34  65  46  75  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  63  49  73  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
GNV  34  67  44  75  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
OCF  34  68  46  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Baker-
     Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-
     Southern Columbia-Suwannee.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Inland
     Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-
     Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

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