Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
656 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms are affecting some TAF sites across the
region this evening and will continue through the evening as a
front moves through. These storms will drop vis and ceilings to
MVFR or lower. Ceilings will remain at or below MVFR through the
morning tomorrow and may be slow to recover during the day. Post
frontal stratus and drizzle will linger tomorrow until mid to late
afternoon, perhaps longer. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday:

Surface moisture divergence is helping to keep the ArkLaMiss
region mostly rain-free this afternoon in spite of seasonably
high levels of moisture and instability. A shortwave trough and
associated cold front will move across the ArkLaMiss region
overnight, and the increasing lift will result in increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances. It is unclear how well the
current organized convective system in the ArkLaTex region will
hold together as it moves east, but CAM guidance hints that lift
will peak again late tonight over central/eastern MS, and that is
where the highest rain chances are for now. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible given fairly high moisture levels, but storm
intensity should remain below severe limits.

Going through Saturday, although measurable rain chances will end
early, we will see weak cold advection maintaining considerable
low cloudiness, and this could be more persistent than currently
forecast. It also wouldn't be surprising if light drizzle lingers,
but for now the CAA seems weak enough so that drizzle will not be
a big concern. In any case, temperatures should be quite a bit
cooler than experienced Friday, especially for locations along/NW
of the Natchez Trace parkway. /EC/

Saturday night through Thursday: Expect dry weather across the area
Saturday night as a frontal system moves out of the area, with dry
conditions expected across the region through Monday. Highs will
warm to the 70s and 80s Sunday, with 80s expected for most locations
by Monday. Chances for rain return to the region by Tuesday as a
frontal system moves into the region. Better chances for rain will
exist Wednesday into Thursday as the frontal system stalls and
pushes back north into our area. Deep moisture looks to lift north
with this system, with some heavy rain rates possible, but still too
soon to determine a flood threat. The front looks to push out of the
area Thursday night, with cooler air moving in behind.

As for the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is currently
monitoring a low pressure system in the Caribbean, giving it a high
probability of becoming a tropical depression in the next couple of
days. It appears likely this system will move into the southeast
Gulf of Mexico in the next few days, and it could eventually move
north and combine with the frontal system next week that is expected
to impact the ArkLaMiss region. We will be monitoring this potential
tropical system for now and any possible impacts to our area. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  70  58  79 /  61  13   0   0
Meridian      66  76  59  80 /  59  31   1   0
Vicksburg     58  67  56  78 /  39   6   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  79  60  81 /  48  26   1   1
Natchez       62  70  58  79 /  42   7   0   0
Greenville    53  60  53  72 /  56   6   0   1
Greenwood     55  63  55  75 /  70   9   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
305 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
242015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
305 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
609 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

MSZ056-057-065-066-232345-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Jasper MS-
609 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND CENTRAL JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Ellisville, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Laurel around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 8905 3156 8923 3155 8948 3189 8945
      3189 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 189DEG 8KT 3160 8925

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

MSZ037-232345-
Attala MS-
619 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ATTALA COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Kosciusko, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kosciusko around 625 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ethel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8955 3302 8970 3324 8961 3307 8937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 216DEG 5KT 3305 8961

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             2 WSW KOSCIUSKO         33.05N 89.62W
10/23/2020  E0.70 INCH       ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL FELL FOR APPROXIMATELY 10
            MINUTES ON THE WEST SIDE OF KOSCIUSKO.

&&

TW

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