Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Jackson, MS

331 
WWUS54 KJAN 122149
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
449 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

MSC103-159-122159-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0377.000000T0000Z-200812T2200Z/
Noxubee MS-Winston MS-
449 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NOXUBEE AND NORTHEASTERN
WINSTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3305 8833 3300 8890 3329 8898 3329 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 263DEG 35KT 3319 8832 

$$

JNE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
333 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Thanks to early morning cloudiness over our
delta region, local radars were quiet there so far this afternoon.
Convection this afternoon was mostly occuring along a moisture axis
along and just east of Interstate 55 and was slowly spreading east.
Expect this activity to continue into early evening before
dissipating but additional convection will develop through the night
north of Interstate 20 and especially over the delta region due to
the presence of the shortwave trough. Mid afternoon water vapor
imagery/RAP analysis still showed a shortwave trough extending from
the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley. This
feature will slowly shift east through Thursday and is expected to
combine with our moist airmass to redevelop convection over our
northwest later tonight that will spread across much of the CWA
during the day Thursday. The storms will be slow movers and could
produce locally heavy rain across the area. The focus for heavy rain
Thursday will shift back over east Mississippi again by afternoon.
The rain and associated cloud cover will hold temperatures down in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will mitigate concerns for heat
stress with the possible exception of our southwest where the lowest
pops and highest temperatures are expected. Peak heat index values
may reach 105F but wl not include mention of this in our HWO at this
time. /22/

.Thursday night through Tuesday night...Mid level troughing will
prevail across the area Thursday night and Friday. This combined
with PWATS around 1.9-2.1 inches over most of the area, will promote
scattered to numerous showers Friday afternoon. Hotter temperatures
are expected on Friday and this combined with high humidity values,
will create heat indices around 105 for areas mainly west of I-55. A
heat graphic is already out so will continue to advertise this. The
global models suggest that the short wave will move east of the area
on Saturday with drier air building in. PWATS will be around 1.6-1.8
inches over most of the area, but still around 2.0 inches in the
south, where the best chance for afternoon storms will exist.

A weak frontal boundary will move south across the area Saturday
night into Sunday and this will mainly usher in slightly drier air
for Sunday. Heat indices will continue to be near 105 degrees mainly
over the western half of the area, so will continue to advertise
this in the HWO and Graphicasts. Even with the drier airmass,
isolated to scattered afternoon storms will be possible Sunday
afternoon. Monday and Tuesday will continue to feature isolated to
scattered afternoon storms and highs around 90 degrees./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Isold to sct TSRA were noted on radar developing over cntrl and se
MS at 1730Z. This activity will expand and affect most TAF sites
this aftn. TSRA activity wl continue this evening in the nw but
dissipate elsewhere. Away from TSRA, VFR conds wl prevail through
this evening. MVFR cigs wl be psbl after 09Z and continue through
15Z before improving. North and cntrl TAF sites will see an early
start Thursday of -RA/-TSRA. Scattered to numerous coverage of
TSRA is expected by Thursday aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  89  73  89 /  36  72  39  60
Meridian      74  90  73  88 /  28  77  46  71
Vicksburg     75  91  74  92 /  42  68  28  45
Hattiesburg   74  92  74  89 /  24  77  33  71
Natchez       75  91  74  92 /  31  53  23  50
Greenville    73  89  72  90 /  75  68  18  32
Greenwood     72  88  71  90 /  69  86  30  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
240 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heat indices near 105 degrees during the late morning and
afternoon hours Friday through Sunday will result in increasing
heat stress, mainly for areas west of Interstate 55.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
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Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
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Latest Weather Briefing...
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National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
356 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

MSZ033-038-039-122130-
Oktibbeha MS-Winston MS-Noxubee MS-
356 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...
SOUTHEASTERN OKTIBBEHA AND EASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Millcreek, or near Louisville, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Betheden around 400 PM CDT.
  Mashulaville around 420 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 8861 3298 8900 3326 8909 3335 8867
      3329 8867 3329 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 258DEG 28KT 3313 8898

JNE