Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Jackson, MS

386 
WWUS54 KJAN 232103
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

MSC025-105-155-232115-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0313.000000T0000Z-200623T2115Z/
Oktibbeha MS-Webster MS-Clay MS-
403 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN OKTIBBEHA...NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND CLAY COUNTIES...

At 403 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Prairie to Griffith to near Pheba, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  West Point around 410 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Mantee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8909 3372 8927 3374 8919 3376 8893
      3381 8893 3381 8872 3368 8872 3367 8854
      3358 8861 3353 8876 3345 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 318DEG 42KT 3375 8871 3364 8883 3357 8899 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
105 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Afternoon cumulus deck around 5,000 ft will continue through
around 00z with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
possible. Thunderstorms can bring low ceilings and reduce
visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through around
12z Wednesday. After that time, low stratus deck may produce MVFR
ceilings at a few of the TAF sites. /NF/TDB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Based on the latest model guidance this morning, we updated the
PoPs and temperatures to reflect the current trend. The frontal boundary
through Northern Mississippi will focus rain chances through this
afternoon as a MCV over Texas continues to move moisture across
the area. Typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across our CWA as diurnal heating occurs. Stronger
heating is expected in the southern parts of our area where cloud
cover has cleared out this morning. There is still a marginal risk
for some strong severe thunderstorms this afternoon due to decent
instability across the region. /NF/TDB/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery showed our
region at the base of a large upper level trough around a low
centered over the northern Great Lakes region. There were no
discernible shortwaves this morning within the associated west to
northwest flow poised to track across our CWA but, another large MCS
was noted dropping south over central Texas. Local radars still
showed a few showers moving east across our northeast most zones with
no signs of early convective development elsewhere. For today wl
still have a moist airmass in place with lower 70 dewpoints and a
PWAT between an inch and three quarters and two inches. A layer of
morning stratus should slow heating initially but this layer should
burn off by mid morning. Daytime heating of our moist airmass is
expected to lead to the development of scattered to numerous storms
again during the afternoon and into the early evening hours. A few
of the storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts
to 60 mph being the primary threat. Hail up to quarter size and
locally heavy downpours will also accompany the strongest storms.
The consensus of hi-res models suggests convection will initiate in
our west and spread east southeast across our CWA. This activity
will be mostly diurnal and dissipate this evening. The rain chances
and associated cloud cover should again hold afternoon highs
slightly below normal and mostly in the upper 80s. /22/

Wednesday through Monday: Ridging in the eastern part of the
CONUS will help keep us rather moist for a few days due to the
reinforcing of southerly winds. How much southerly flow will help
determine With an approaching weak frontal boundary, convection
potential and other ingredients that models hint on are sufficient
enough to advertise a 'Marginal Risk' for most of the
southeastern portions of our CWA Wednesday. There is a chance the
Marginal gets extended during the next update but its worth the
mention that we are in our summertime pattern so the chance of
rain and storms(a few of which could become severe) will be the
story for the next several days. The threat for flash flooding
isn't out of the question and while models continue to not be
overbearing with QPF values if places see reoccurring thunderstorm
activity, heavy downpours could lead to localized flash flooding.
For now, we aren't expecting any significant flooding to impact
us.

Rain chances and afternoon storms will stick around through the
weekend and even into early next week. Models suggest a possible
MCS Saturday night/early Sunday morning so increased weekend rain
chances. However that is at the end of the extended period so
guidances for the weekend are subject to change as well as early
next week. High temperatures this week will range from the low to
upper 80s through Thursday and then climb into the lower 90s
starting Friday. We also will be keeping a look out on the Saharan
dust that continues to makes its way towards the states and
eventually in the Gulf. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  69  83  69 /  65  54  78  29
Meridian      89  69  84  68 /  69  65  81  33
Vicksburg     88  71  83  70 /  56  53  73  25
Hattiesburg   90  70  85  70 /  65  50  90  31
Natchez       87  69  80  69 /  68  59  88  28
Greenville    85  70  84  70 /  71  45  32  13
Greenwood     87  69  85  69 /  75  41  39  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
240930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
416 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
and hail up to quarter size are possible this afternoon and early
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of
central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, portions of
northeast Louisiana, and all of south central Mississippi
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
and hail up to quarter size are possible this afternoon and early
evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

MSZ018-231815-
Bolivar MS-
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTY UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1236 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Rosedale. This storm was moving slowly east.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gunnison around 115 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beulah and Pace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 9077 3378 9099 3379 9099 3380 9100
      3381 9104 3379 9105 3377 9105 3377 9109
      3378 9109 3381 9105 3384 9107 3387 9107
      3393 9101 3394 9103 3401 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 241DEG 4KT 3387 9102

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

MSZ026-232045-
Grenada MS-
308 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRENADA COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Grenada, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elliott around 315 PM CDT.
  Gore Springs around 325 PM CDT.
  Misterton around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8977 3387 8951 3368 8951 3368 9001
      3381 9000 3381 8998 3382 8998 3383 8993
      3390 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 270DEG 35KT 3375 8983

DC