Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
341 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday...
Strong instability and residual boundaries from previous
convection have resulted in increasing coverage of convection this
afternoon. A few of these storms have already been rather robust.
Damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts are the primary threat
with these storms, though marginally severe hail cannot be ruled
out. Environmental shear is rather weak, so most of these storms
have been short lived, but if a composite outflow develops, one or
two clusters of storms may be able to sustain over a longer
period of time. Activity may persist well into this evening,
especially across the Delta, as an MCV from a remnant convective
complex near the ArkLaTex continues eastward over the next several
hours. HREF PMM 24 hour QPF suggests potential for a localized
band of higher rainfall totals from S AR into NW MS tonight.
Though we won't advertise a flash flood threat in the HWO given
the area of concern is mainly outside of our area, localized flash
flooding isn't out of the question in the Delta.

Any lingering convection should weaken overnight, with low clouds
developing across much of the area through mid-morning. Tonight, yet
another MCS will likely develop upstream across the Southern Plains
pushing eastward overnight. Though this complex will likely weaken
before reaching our area, its remnants may serve as a focusing
mechanism for renewed convection on Monday afternoon. Diurnal
heating will again lead to moderate to strong instability, with some
hints at stronger deep shear than exists today. While confidence is
low in specific timing and evolution, there are enough ingredients
in place to advertise another marginal risk for severe storms. We
should begin to get a better sense of how things will evolve later
on tonight. /DL/

Tomorrow night through Saturday...
Most of the region gets into a summer-like pattern with heat and
humidity...fueling the chances for periodic showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week. An upper low parks just north
of the Great Lakes and weak ridging dominates the Plains. As a
result, flow into the region is split between a more
west/northwesterly pattern in the northern half of the Gulf
States...and a far weaker westerly pattern along the Coast. Weak
surface ridging just to the east sets up south/southwesterly winds
at the surface constantly reinforcing the warm and humid air in
place over the region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be
the rule, with mesoscale influences from convection steering the
short term weather and longevity of any convection into the
overnight hours. Models are having some issues with delineating
between diurnal convection, southerly extent of waves pivoting
around the upper trough, and what looks to be an almost feedback
signal. As a result, the forecast is dominated by chances for
precip at least daily through the end of the week. Given how much
south/southwesterly flow the pattern is signaling, the models are
not varying much in the thermal profile of the midlevels. Forecast
highs and lows are very close to seasonal normals, depending on
the extent of afternoon/early evening precip and cloud cover
limiting the max heat of day. Tuesday and Wednesday are the only
exceptions at this point, a couple degrees below normals due to
precip coverage. /HJS/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area this
afternoon, though a broken high MVFR deck exists across a portion
of the ArkLaMiss Delta. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase this
afternoon through early this evening, tapering down late tonight.
Brief ceiling/visby reductions are possible in +RA and locally
strong wind gusts are possible. Late tonight into early Monday
morning, MVFR ceilings will develop across much of the region. VFR
conditions are expected to return by mid-morning Monday. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  71  87 /  31  57  19  80
Meridian      70  92  71  88 /  30  64  17  78
Vicksburg     73  91  74  87 /  32  52  21  80
Hattiesburg   72  91  71  89 /  21  62  11  77
Natchez       72  88  71  86 /  20  61  11  80
Greenville    73  90  72  84 /  68  46  52  83
Greenwood     72  91  71  84 /  50  54  53  84

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>038-
040>044-047>049-053-059-222045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Jefferson-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening and again on Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening
and again on Monday. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
concern with these storms, but hail up to the size of quarters
will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are again possible on Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

LAZ026-MSZ031-039-045-046-050-051-054-060-222045-
Concordia-Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Copiah-
Adams-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi and Concordia Parish, Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms,
but hail up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MSZ052-055>058-061>066-072>074-222045-
Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
southeastern Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with these storms, but hail
up to the size of quarters will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
517 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MSZ034-041-212300-
Washington MS-Sharkey MS-
517 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL SHARKEY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Glen Allan, or 8 miles southeast of Avon, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Panther Burn around 525 PM CDT.
  Hollandale around 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 9116 3313 9110 3315 9108 3319 9108
      3328 9098 3310 9068 3310 9078 3305 9090
      3301 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 229DEG 14KT 3312 9099

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

MSZ040-041-212300-
Sharkey MS-Issaquena MS-
525 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ISSAQUENA AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Onward, or 9 miles southwest of Rolling Fork, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Issaquena
and southwestern Sharkey Counties, including the following
locations... Cary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9093 3278 9109 3292 9095 3283 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 219DEG 16KT 3279 9096

TW