Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Line of thunderstorms are moving through the I-20 corridor. Behind
this, light to moderate rain is occurring. This is affecting TAF
sites along and north of I-20 and leading to reduced vis in the
strongest storms. Elsewhere VFR conditions continue. This line
will continue south this evening. Light rain will linger behind
this activity through the evening but VFR conditions and quiet
weather expected overnight into tomorrow. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through tomorrow:

As of this afternoon, a severe MCS is pushing south along I-55 in
northern Mississippi. This line of severe storms will continue to
move south through northern and into central Mississippi. 18z JAN
sounding sampled 4600 J/kg of SBCAPE and 1100 J/kg of downdraft
CAPE, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts of 60-70mph.
The ongoing slight risk in the HWO/graphics remains well placed and
no changes were needed. The MCS will weaken this evening as it
pushes south of I-20 with only a few showers and perhaps an isolated
storm lingering through the overnight hours.

By tomorrow, Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to move north
across the Gulf of Mexico as upper ridging shifts east into the
Middle Mississippi River Valley. Associated cloud cover will begin
to increase across southeast Mississippi, but the majority of any
rainfall will remain offshore and south of the ArkLaMiss region
through the day tomorrow. A few isolated to scattered diurnally
driven showers and storms will be possible, but coverage is expected
to be lower compared to today. /TW/

Saturday night through next week: The primary focus will be on the
impacts of Tropical Storm Cristobal as we finish up the weekend
and go through early next week. Per latest information from NHC,
we expect "Cristobal" to officially make landfall late Sunday
over the eastern LA coast. Thereafter, the center of the decaying
system will track NNW through western portions of the forecast
area, with impactful wind/rainfall will spread across most of the
forecast area as we go from Sunday night through Tuesday.

The rainfall associated with this system has the chance to the
most significant impact for the ArkLaMiss region. Initially, the
bulk of rainfall is occurring on the north/east side of the track
as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico, but as "Cristobal" approaches the LA coast and
then moves inland, it will begin to make a westward turn in
response to a ridge building to the north. Given greater ridge
influence, ascent and the heaviest rainfall should focus closer
to the center and the bulk of guidance shows the heaviest QPF
shifting to west of the I-55 corridor with time. An HWO graphic
shows the increasing rainfall/flooding threat, but it is also
worth noting that there has been a noticeable eastward shift in
the guidance and this may need to eventually be reflected in the
graphic. Otherwise, there will likely be a threat for brief
tornadoes and strong wind gusts, perhaps near TS strength Monday.

"Cristobal" is expected to get swept up in the westerlies mid week
with a strong upper level trough pushing a cold front through the
forecast area. While convective rainfall will accompany the
front, expect drier conditions to finish up the week behind it.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  89  72  88 /  60  24   6  27
Meridian      72  89  70  87 /  50  24   9  28
Vicksburg     74  91  74  90 /  61  22   4  23
Hattiesburg   72  88  71  83 /  30  24  23  60
Natchez       73  89  72  86 /  45  23   7  40
Greenville    75  92  74  93 /  61  18   2   9
Greenwood     74  92  73  93 /  59  20   3   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-025-034-061430-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Washington-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ029-032-037-043-044-048-049-061430-
Webster-Choctaw-Attala-Madison MS-Leake-Hinds-Rankin-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

LAZ009-015-016-MSZ026>028-035-036-040>042-047-061430-
East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this
evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-050>052-054>065-061430-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-
Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts of 60 mph, and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053-061430-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Claiborne-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into
this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts of 60 mph, and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ066-072>074-061430-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
920 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

1

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANTON                  32.61N 90.04W
06/05/2020                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN CANTON AREA...REPORTED
            BY MADISON SO.

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
701 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASTOWN              32.86N 89.66W
06/05/2020                   LEAKE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE THOMASTOWN
            AREA...REPORTED BY THE LEAKE COUNTY SO.

&&

EC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCOLA                  33.27N 90.88W
06/05/2020                   WASHINGTON         MS   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS OLD HIGHWAY 61 IN
            ARCOLA.

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE JAN AIRPORT       32.30N 90.04W
06/05/2020                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF TREES DOWN.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
712 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

MSZ056>058-065-066-060115-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
712 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN
SMITH...SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE...COVINGTON AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Barnett to near Bay Springs to near
Martinville. Movement was south at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Stringer around 720 PM CDT.
  Moss around 725 PM CDT.
  Mount Olive around 735 PM CDT.
  Hebron around 740 PM CDT.
  Laurel around 745 PM CDT.
  Ellisville, Lone Star and Mill Creek around 750 PM CDT.
  Moselle around 800 PM CDT.
  Eastabuchie and Sanford around 805 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Pachuta, Seminary
and Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central, central, southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3184 8874 3182 8894 3143 8894 3144 8958
      3154 8960 3161 8975 3177 8975 3178 8961
      3199 8925 3211 8873
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 007DEG 33KT 3203 8883 3193 8926 3198 8971

TW