Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
124 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
SCT-BKN cu field underneath cirrus this afternoon, scattered
convection breaking out after a short lull from this mornings
showers. Expect the tempo tsra through the afternoon and into the
evening, diurnally driven for the most part before most will
dissipate. Again, setting up for some llvl moisture issues but
going with more of a low stratus MVFR/IFR than a fog concern given
the continued chances for precip and persistent cloud cover.
Terminals to the SE where vis may end up dropping before dawn.
Winds will be mostly out of the south/southwest and generally
less than 10 kts...almost calm going into tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very weak ridging over the region not enough to really combat
some quick showers this morning. As the wave progresses to the
east, tapping into some more unstable air resulting in a few
thunderstorms going up rapidly in east central MS. A little gusty
winds and possibly some small hail... but so far, the storms have
remained below severe criteria. Have updated the grids for less
coverage in the east early on. Still expect the chances for precip
to become more widespread through peak heating and into the
evening hours, particularly given the well developed cu field out
there now under the cirrus.

Prior discussion below:
Today and Tonight...High pressure at the surface remains wedged
into the region from the west, resulting in increasing moisture
across the forecast area. A shortwave will also begin slowly
traversing the region through the course of the day. This, coupled
with daytime heating as highs range from the mid 80s to around
90, will result in an increasingly unstable airmass across the
forecast area. Therefore, look for a better coverage of showers
and storms developing across the CWA today.

A coupled jet moving through the region, could enhance convection a
bit this afternoon. This could lead to a few storms being on the
strong side.  While confidence in severe storms is too low to
introduce anything into the HWO for today, a stray storm
potentially reaching severe limits isn't out of the question.
Gusty winds will be the primary concern with the most intense
storms, but hail can't be ruled out. In addition, with
precipitable H2O values ranging between 1.75-2.00 inches, some
heavy downpours are possible and could result in the ponding of
water on roads, as well as in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

While most of today's convection will begin dissipating after sunset
this evening, some isolated activity could linger through the
overnight hours.  Skies will again remain partly clouds tonight.
Mild conditions will persist as lows range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /19/

Thursday through Early Next Week...All eyes will be on now Tropical
Storm Cristobal in the extended forecast. There continues to be
uncertainty with this tropical storm when it comes to land fall
and other impacts but rain/storms will be expected for pretty much
each day. A weak shortwave will help aid in rain and storm
chances Thursday but by Friday mos of the rain and potential
storms will be influenced by this tropical system.

Cristobal has already shown better organization that yesterday and
is set to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
Ridging aloft across the Tennessee Valley will help in terms of
steering motion for this system but depending on how quickly this
ridge moves east will help aid in the speed of this system, meaning
there is also the chance for this to stall. We can expect for
ridging to be more pronounced by the weekend which will increase
humidity values and temperatures. Expect temperatures to be in the
upper 80s to low 90s for most of the extended period.

As mentioned before, there is still a great deal of uncertainty
when it comes to Cristobal and where it will make land fall
exactly, but models currently place its core in the general
vicinity of the central LA coast. In terms of impacts to the
ArkLaMiss if this forecast holds true, we could expect rainfall
and possibly heavy rainfall at some point and an increase in
winds/gusts especially areas in the most southern parts of the
CWA. Severe potential is uncertain at this point. We will continue
to monitor Tropical Storm Cristobal closely and update as much as
possible to ensure everyone stays informed. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  69  88  70 /  61  44  61  12
Meridian      88  70  88  68 /  62  44  63  19
Vicksburg     91  72  89  72 /  52  39  56   9
Hattiesburg   86  69  88  68 /  70  47  52  14
Natchez       88  69  87  71 /  62  42  50   8
Greenville    88  72  89  73 /  48  35  57  11
Greenwood     89  72  89  71 /  51  40  63  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
316 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>034-042030-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
316 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Thursday

Thursday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Thursday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ035>066-072>074-042030-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
316 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
359 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

MSZ063-072-032130-
Lawrence MS-Marion MS-
359 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MARION AND SOUTHERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Topeka, or 13 miles northwest of Kokomo, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tilton around 425 PM CDT.
  Robinwood, Arm and Oak Vale around 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 9004 3134 9004 3133 9008 3134 9009
      3134 9011 3135 9011 3135 9022 3137 9025
      3138 9024 3150 9016 3151 8996 3139 8996
      3139 8989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 221DEG 12KT 3137 9012

CME