River Flood Warning 59, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
550 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
TAFs will predominately remain in the MVFR category through the
majority of the next 24 hours.  This is as a result of convection
and clouds associated with an system that won't clear the forecast
area until early Friday morning.  While the bulk of the moderate and
heavy rainfall exits the area late this morning, light rain and low
ceilings this afternoon and overnight will account for the degraded
flight categories during that time.  Then towards day break Friday,
clouds will begin to move out of the area, with the onset of VFR
categories beginning as clouds exit the region.  Winds throughout
the period will be breezy from the west northwest, eventually
becoming gusty later tonight. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Tornado Watch 25 was cancelled for the remainder
of the CWA at 09Z, as a strong cold front exits the CWA, taking the
threat of severe weather along with it.  However, elevated showers
and isolated storms remain in the front's wake, ahead of the strong
trough swinging east across the plains states.  While these
lingering storms are again elevated and expected to remain below
severe limits, some of the more robust cores could produce some
small hail as mid-level lapse rates remain in the 6.5-7 C/km range.

This activity will steadily exit the eastern portion of the CWA
through the morning. However, light rain will remain in the forecast
for much of the CWA today as the upper trough finally swings into
the region this afternoon. This will help in essentially squeezing
out any remaining moisture over the forecast area through the course
of the afternoon and evening hours.  Colder drier air will steadily
advect into the region through the course of the day, with highs
this afternoon ranging from the mid 40s to upper 50s.

As the trough exits the region overnight, some precipitation will
linger as moisture wraps around the back side of it.  As noticeably
colder drier air continues advecting into the region, temperatures
will fall into the low and middle 30s.  Model soundings indicate
that there remains some potential that any lingering light rain or
drizzle across mainly the Golden Triangle area early Friday morning,
could briefly transition to light snow or flurries across that area.
No accumulation or impact is currently expected if this indeed
transpires. /19/

Friday through next Wednesday...Expect a brief period of dry
weather and seasonable temperatures Friday and Friday night, with
showers returning Saturday as another system quickly moves into
the region. Highs Friday will be in the 50s, then warming to the
mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday. Another short period of dry weather
will return Sunday as high pressure influences the region. Highs
Sunday will be in the 60s area wide. Unsettled weather returns to
the region Sunday night through Wednesday, along with continued
warming as another frontal system impacts the region. With good
warm air advection ahead of the boundary and plenty of Gulf
moisture available, some convective storms will be possible Monday
through Wednesday. Highs Monday look to range from the lower 60s
to the lower 70s, with Highs Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. /27/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  32  56  40 /  61  28   0   5
Meridian      57  33  56  39 /  81  38   0   3
Vicksburg     47  31  57  41 /  59  14   0   6
Hattiesburg   58  33  57  40 /  82  17   0   1
Natchez       48  32  58  42 /  54  12   0   4
Greenville    43  31  52  38 /  57  20   0   6
Greenwood     45  32  52  39 /  60  41   0   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
513 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
421 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

MSZ066-074-061045-
Jones MS-Forrest MS-
421 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FORREST AND
SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CST...

At 420 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Sunrise, or near Petal, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ovett around 435 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8935 3167 8894 3143 8894 3143 8914
      3125 8915 3120 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 231DEG 50KT 3132 8917

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

MSZ074-061115-
Forrest MS-
441 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FORREST COUNTY
UNTIL 515 AM CST...

At 441 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Lumberton, or 12 miles northeast of Poplarville, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maxie and Rock Hill around 450 AM CST.
  Brooklyn around 455 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8934 3100 8935 3107 8935 3121 8915
      3100 8915 3100 8914 3091 8914 3091 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 232DEG 62KT 3094 8936

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

MSZ058-061115-
Clarke MS-
443 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY UNTIL
515 AM CST...

At 442 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Crandall, or 13 miles southeast of Quitman, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Clarke
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8847 3186 8862 3185 8870 3208 8870
      3217 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 241DEG 42KT 3194 8853

19