Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Jackson, MS

237 
WGUS74 KJAN 040351
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
951 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

MSC087-040515-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200104T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lowndes MS-
951 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CST FOR
CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY...

At 947 PM CST, emergency management continued to report flooding 
from Magby Creek in eastern Columbus although water levels were 
beginning to subside.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by overflowing creek.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Columbus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3354 8835 3345 8836 3345 8841 3354 8839

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

GRG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
548 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
While showers continue between MEI, HBG and PIB, ceilings have
begun to rise between GLH and GWO. Isolated showers will continue
to be possible during the evening as a cold front moves through
the area. Prior to the frontal passage, MVFR conditions will exist.
With the frontal passage, winds will switch to the northwest at
10 to 20 knots as ceilings begin rising. All TAF sites should have
VFR conditions by mid morning Saturday./GG/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...Showers are continuing mainly for
areas south of the Natchez Trace Corridor this afternoon. This area
of showers will continue to shift eastward through the afternoon
into the early evening hours. An upper short wave and associated
cold front will move into the delta this evening and move across the
area through the overnight hours. Currently it looks like there will
be just enough moisture available for mainly light rainshowers with
the boundary. Lows will fall into the 40s for most of the area
overnight. In the wake of the boundary on Saturday, the winds may
become gusty out of the northwest during the late morning into the
afternoon hours, with gusts from 20-25 mph possible, but high
pressure ridging will quickly build in by early Saturday evening
and the winds will subside. Highs will only climb into the 50s
for much of the area Saturday afternoon. /15/

Tomorrow night through Friday...

The current active pattern is forecast to give way to zonal flow
across the central CONUS by Sunday. This will allow for dry and
mostly sunny weather to continue into Monday with moderating
temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the low to
mid 60s on Sunday into Monday. Heading into Monday night, a fast
moving shortwave trough is progged to eject out of the Four Corners
region and into the Southern Plains. A weak surface low is expected
to lift into the Ohio River Valley with an associated cold front
pushing through the ArkLaMiss overnight into Tuesday morning. This
front will bring a round of rain showers to the area, but the fast
progression and positive tilt to the wave will preclude greater
moisture return and mitigate thunderstorm potential. Cool and dry
air will filter into the region behind the front with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows into the 30s.

By late next week, expect temperatures to start moderating again
ahead of the next storm system. Global models are in agreement that
strong Pacific jet energy diving through the Great Basin will help
carve out a potent trough on Thursday. Solutions quickly diverge
thereafter as the GFS remains less amplified and faster with an
ejecting wave pushing a cold front through on Friday. The ECMWF, on
the other hand, is slower with a more pronounced wave moving through
the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. The slower ECMWF
solution allows for a prolonged period of moisture return with a
more favorable setup for active weather. Regardless, its too early
to speculate on any specifics, but this late week storm system will
need to be closely monitored for severe weather potential. /TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  55  33  65 /  46   0   0   0
Meridian      46  57  32  63 /  29   0   0   0
Vicksburg     42  56  35  65 /  50   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   49  60  33  63 /  18   8   0   0
Natchez       43  57  36  66 /  53   0   0   0
Greenville    40  50  35  62 /  64   1   0   0
Greenwood     40  51  33  62 /  71   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
348 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
042200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
348 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

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