Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Jackson, MS

869 
WGUS74 KJAN 222352
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
652 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

MSC031-067-230002-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-200523T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Covington MS-Jones MS-
652 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL COVINGTON AND 
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. 

LAT...LON 3165 8949 3170 8950 3170 8949 3176 8937
      3180 8930 3176 8927 3165 8940

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow...

A warm day has unfolded across the region. Temperatures have reached
the upper 80s and even 90 degrees at a few locations. Showers and
storms have occurred across the southeast part of the state and
these will continue through the afternoon. With decent lapse rates,
there could be a strong storm or two with this activity. Storms
should diminish with loss of daytime heating. As an upper level
storm moves to the northeast of the region, there are some
indications that the remnants of an MCS that will move through
portions of the Southern Plains and into Arkansas could move into
the Delta later this evening into overnight. Per hi-res model
guidance, the most likely time for this would be after midnight, but
confidence is not high that this will remain together and have left
out of the forecast for now. Later shifts may want to monitor this
potential. It is possible that this decaying system may leave a
boundary for focus on storms tomorrow. It appears the best chances
for storms will be around the Natchez Trace corridor. Highs tomorrow
will once again be warm with more locations potentially reaching
into the lower 90s. /28/

Tomorrow night through Thursday...
Looking at 500mb, there are three predominant lows...one well
defined over the upper Ohio River Valley, one over the NWrn CONUS,
and a third developing over the Missouri River Valley. The third low
is expected to continue to deepen, cutting off and moving a little
more slowly eastward, but finally kicking the eastern low out to the
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a Bermuda High and a developing low
pressure region over the Rockies keeps the flow southerly in the
southeast, pulling plenty of warmer air and moisture into ArkLaMiss
and surrounding areas.  This will ultimately mean a continued hot
and muggy holiday weekend.  With temperatures in the upper 80s/lower
90s, and moisture increasing through the weekend, there will be
plenty of general instability...but the lapse rates will lessen
slightly with time. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a
threat, particularly in the afternoon/evening hours with a steady
diurnal impact.

As the week progresses, the low over the NW will see a series of
shortwaves pivoting through the trough...deepening the
trough/amplifying the pattern and perpetuating the inflow of hot
temps and moisture. Sets up a forecast with persistent temps about 5
degrees above normal and scattered showers and thunderstorms,
particularly in the afternoon...but also with varying degrees of
isentropic influence with the amplifying pattern.  PW values range
from 1.4-1.8 through midweek, but the lifting mechanism is the
trick.  Regardless, a hot and summery pattern in place through the
forecast. /HJS/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the period. Some
showers or thunderstorms may affect KHBG/KPIB/KMEI through this
evening before diminishing. MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings will
occur after midnight and before daybreak tomorrow. These should
lift by 14Z tomorrow back to VFR. Additional showers and storms
will be possible again tomorrow. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  90  69  89 /  17  30   6  25
Meridian      70  90  67  90 /  23  31   4  22
Vicksburg     73  89  71  89 /  13  28   8  32
Hattiesburg   71  90  69  89 /  23  35   4  29
Natchez       71  88  71  87 /  13  32   7  38
Greenville    73  89  72  89 /   8  20   9  23
Greenwood     72  89  71  90 /  11  23   9  23

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

HJS/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
320 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
232030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
320 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

MSZ066-222045-
Jones MS-
304 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JONES COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Tuckers Crossing, or near Laurel, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mill Creek around 320 PM CDT.
  Sandersville around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 8903 3163 8925 3181 8912 3183 8894
      3162 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 211DEG 20KT 3164 8909

JNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE MOSS              31.83N 89.13W
05/22/2020                   JASPER             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON JASPER COUNTY ROAD 23.

0335 PM     HAIL             3 ENE MOSS              31.83N 89.13W
05/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            ON JASPER COUNTY ROAD 23.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE LAUREL            31.72N 89.13W
05/22/2020                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE OFF OF CARTER AVE.

0315 PM     HAIL             LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
05/22/2020  E0.70 INCH       JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT THE EOC.

&&