Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
405 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 523 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will persist until after sunset. A few
storms could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and
torrential rainfall being the primary hazard. Heat Index values
increase around the century mark tomorrow afternoon for northwest
Ohio and eastern Indiana while the remainder of the area holds in
the mid to upper 90s. Another round of thunderstorms are expected
on Thursday and again late Thursday night through Friday. A few
of the storms could be strong, with gusty winds and heavy rain the
primary threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed once again across
the area as temperatures/heat index values reach into the mid to
upper 90s. Much like yesterday, deep layer shear is very weak with
strong instability in the 1500 - 2500 J/kg range. Storm organization
is not anticipated given the weak shear, but storms will be able to
pulse into the strong to marginally severe category. DCAPE across
the area of 1000 - 1500 J/kg, will sustain the chance for storms to
produce localized downbursts as cores collapse. Locally heavy
rainfall, briefly torrential, is expected for locations where storms
move over. Should see storms wain after sunset, but a stalled
shortwave just SW of the forecast area could cause an isolated storm
to develop during the overnight hours. CAMs do generate a few storms
overnight, but the location is different between the various models.
Will broad brush an isolated mention of storms after 06z to account
for this chance, but confidence is low. Other than this chance for a
storm, overnight lows should drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday will see the stalled shortwave over IL lift northeastwards
over the course of the day in response to a stronger low propagating
eastwards from the northern Plains/upper Midwest. This could help
initiate a greater coverage of convection during the daytime hours.
There is some uncertainty as to how much upper support this
shortwave will provide given that it will start to be ingested by
the western low as we approach peak heating. Will keep POPs in the
40 to 50 percent range with this issuance given that there will be
more upper support than on previous days. Shear will be a little
better, but still around 15kt. The combination of instability and
weak upper support could allow for thunderstorms to become strong to
marginally severe. Primary hazard with these storms will be strong
to damaging winds, hail up to 1 inch, and locally heavy rainfall.

Looking at the heat concern, will go with a Heat Advisory for NW
OH and portions of NE IN where heat index values are 98 to 100
degrees. Will continue the SPS for the remainder of the area, as
there is greater concern with cloud cover preventing temps from
warming sufficiently to hold heat index values in that range.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

A brief decrease in convective area is possible Thursday night prior
to midnight before the eastward progressing low mentioned above
pushes into the forecast area. This will allow convection to spread
across the area over the remainder of the overnight hours and
daytime Friday. The increased cloud cover and widespread precip
should help to keep afternoon high temperatures in the 80s. This
should also help to limit instability and storm strength despite
better shear. As such, severe weather is not anticipated at this
time. Still some differences between models concerning end timing,
but think storms should start to diminish after sunset Friday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday and
Sunday as the upper low (now east of the area) begins to stall. Have
stayed slower to the ECMWF for this time frame and beyond as it has
been the most consistent with the upper pattern evolution for
several days. This results in dry conditions returning for next week
with a gradual warming trends as an upper ridge builds back over the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Weak front and diurnal heating will combine to once again pop
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across northern IN.
Better chances appear to be at KFWA mid-late afternoon where a
tempo -tsra group was retained. Brief higher wind gusts and VIS
restriction are the main threats with any convection. Light winds
and VFR otherwise in stagnant pattern, with some potential for
shallow BR formation toward daybreak tomorrow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for INZ009-017-018-
     023>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD/CM
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Steinwedel

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ003>008-012>016-020-022-MIZ077>081-092015-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Berrien-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 /308 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through sunset this evening.
A few of the storms could be strong to marginally severe, with gusty
winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Maximum afternoon heat index values on Thursday will range in the mid
to upper 90s. Friday will be slightly cooler, with heat indices in
the low to mid 90s.

There are chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. The best chances will
be Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. A few storms could be
strong, with with gusty winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ009-017-018-023>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
092015-
De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-
Blackford-Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through sunset this evening.
A few of the storms could be strong to marginally severe, with gusty
winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Maximum afternoon heat index values on Thursday will range from
98 to 101 degrees.

Friday will be slightly cooler, with heat indices in the low to mid
90s.

There are chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. The best chances will
be Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. A few storms could be
strong, with with gusty winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-092015-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There are low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
338 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ017-018-025-082015-
Whitley-Huntington-Allen-
338 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN...
SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTIES...

At 337 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Wayne. The
storm is moving southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, New Haven, Aboite, Middletown, Roanoke, Zanesville, Nine
Mile, Yoder, Hoagland, Poe, Rolling Hills and Hessen Cassel.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 16.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 294 and 311.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 8545 4114 8516 4092 8489 4092 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 331DEG 3KT 4104 8522

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...50MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ015-016-082015-
Kosciusko-Fulton-
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FULTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

At 342 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mentone, or 8
miles northeast of Rochester. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mentone, Claypool, Burket, Beaver Dam Lake, Sevastopol, Beaver Dam,
Talma and Palestine.

Seek shelter until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 8617 4117 8606 4121 8605 4125 8592
      4115 8584 4101 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 336DEG 3KT 4115 8608

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
347 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ012-013-082015-
Starke-Pulaski-
347 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PULASKI AND SOUTH
CENTRAL STARKE COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT/246 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
North Judson, or near Knox. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knox, North Judson, Toto, Denham and Bass Lake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Seek shelter until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 8682 4128 8679 4130 8660 4114 8661
      4114 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 087DEG 0KT 4123 8671

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
358 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

INZ025-026-082030-
Huntington-Wells-
358 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HUNTINGTON AND
NORTH CENTRAL WELLS COUNTIES...

At 357 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Markle to near Andrews. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Andrews, Markle, Lancaster, Uniondale, Mount Etna,
Bowerstown, Plum Tree, North Oaks, Majenica, Banquo, Rockford and
Pleasant Plain.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 276 and
292.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Seek shelter
until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 8564 4094 8535 4076 8517 4067 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 328DEG 15KT 4089 8533 4082 8563

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE NINE MILE         40.98N 85.18W
07/08/2020  M67 MPH          ALLEN              IN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KFWA FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL
            AP.

&&

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