Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
351 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Remaining mild today with increasing clouds. The chance for rain
increases from west to east beginning late today. Rain remains in
the forecast through Monday, paired with colder temperatures. Cool
conditions with additional showers are expected through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

An expansive trough will envelop much of the Central US through the
day. In response, ahead of this feature, we will reside in the
warm sector resulting in a mild day. Low and mid-level moisture
streams in as well, promoting increased cloud cover. In previous
forecast renditions, I chose to discount the Sunday rain
chance...no longer. While it is true that the main trough axis and
best cyclonic vorticity advection are farther west toward the
Mississippi River, it appears that the combination of isentropic
lift and perhaps a preceding, weaker cold front, could force some
afternoon rain showers. My 02z hand analysis depicts a cold front
across central IA. High resolution guidance brings this wind
shift to the NW counties in the late afternoon hours. This is
roughly when the rain chances begin in the NW counties.

A second, more potent cold front approaches overnight and is
associated with the main trough axis. The 00z GFS and NAM are in
strong agreement with the 500-mb trough axis by 12z Monday; located
through the northern and central MS River Valley. This cold front
will bring much needed rain to the western and central counties
overnight; NW Ohio counties may have to wait until Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Expect cool conditions with periodic rain chances for this week.

The cold front and trough continue their eastward journey on
Monday. As such, POPs will remain high in the eastern counties
through Monday, while tapering off in the west. Expect a breezy and
damp day. Storm total rainfall looks to be in the window of
0.25-0.50".

As the original trough lifts northeast into Ontario Monday night, a
pronounced dry-slot at 700-mb slips in. Despite lingering vort
lobes, the dry slot likely tampers shower chances until Tuesday
night. The moisture profile improves on Wednesday, with continued
active northwest flow in response to an upper-low tracking through
the Gulf Coast states. The next disturbance sweeps in locally on
Thursday bringing, you guessed it, more rain chances. The moisture
profile dries again as high pressure moves in Friday, continuing
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Some marginal LLWS conditions to continue overnight, with greatest
chances of this criteria being met through around 11Z. Strong
southwesterly low level flow/thermal advection will continue to be
favorable for the development of a very strong low level inversion
through the early morning hours. Along with this inversion, comes
the threat of more nocturnal stratus development. Satellite
imagery early this morning indicating some low cloud development
across central Kentucky. Confidence in expansive stratus
developing through mid morning is beginning to decrease somewhat
with strength of warm advection possibly resulting in some
saturation issues in low levels. Nevertheless, low level moisture
transport axis from northern Illinois should shift eastward into
northern Indiana by daybreak, and cannot discount potential of
some lower end MVFR cigs or IFR cigs developing around the 12Z
timeframe. With low confidence, will maintain lower end MVFR cigs
in the 12-15Z timeframe but will need to monitor observational
trends for potential brief IFR window.

Wind speeds will continue to slacken overnight into midday Sunday
with wind shift to the northwest across KSBN this afternoon. Cigs
likely to deteriorate again toward the end of this valid period
as secondary front and stronger upper forcing move in from the
west. Rain showers will also become likely by late evening at KSBN
with this frontal forcing.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through late tonight
     for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late tonight
     for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili

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