Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Northern Indiana

312 
WWUS53 KIWX 272241
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
641 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

INC091-MIC021-272250-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200827T2245Z/
La Porte IN-Berrien MI-
641 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE AND
SOUTH CENTRAL BERRIEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT/545 PM
CDT/...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Northern Indiana.

LAT...LON 4175 8674 4183 8656 4174 8652 4166 8653
      4167 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 253DEG 17KT 4175 8653 

$$

CM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
329 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Hot and humid this afternoon and evening with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. There are even better
chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Cooler weather will return this weekend. Breezy northwest
winds will create dangerous swim conditions on Lake Michigan
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday night)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

High pressure nosing into the area from the southeast will allow
the hot weather to continue through Friday. There is a frontal
boundary to the north across central Michigan, while Hurricane
Laura continues to make its way northward through the lower
Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly low-level flow into the local
area has brought increasing moisture, and PWs will increase to
almost 2 inches this evening. This moist unstable airmass has
resulted in the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. There is still a lot of dry air aloft, so while
the threat of severe storms is low since we are lacking a good
upper level trigger and shear is only marginal, some storms may
become large enough to produce gusty outflow winds or hail. Heavy
rain is also possible with these storms as they are somewhat slow
moving and are training linearly across northern Indiana. Some
activity could persist through the night, although the loss of
daytime heating should help limit coverage.

There is a better chance of convection on Friday as the
environment continues to moisten ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Scattered storms can be expected through much of the
day, with the best chance for severe weather late afternoon
through evening as the shortwave moves in ahead of a cold front.
The biggest threat is wind, as is usual, but cannot rule out the
possibility of hail or even a brief tornado, especially near the
warm front over lower Michigan where shear will be better. The
cold front is not expected to come through until after sunset, so
instability will be on the decrease, but models are in pretty good
agreement that a line of storms with gusty winds will come through
after 9 PM EDT. This line should weaken and break up before
reaching Ohio as the surface low lifts into New England.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

It will be cooler and drier behind the cold front for Saturday and
Sunday. Breezy northwest winds will also follow the front. With
gusts around 25 mph over Lake Michigan on Saturday, there is a
high risk of rip currents and large waves, causing very dangerous
swim conditions. Winds will shift to the northeast and subside on
Sunday, but there will still be a moderate risk for dangerous
currents. Another quick moving cold will swing through Monday
night, but the upper level flow will split as it does with better
rain chances to the north and south, so the local area may remain
dry. From Tuesday onward, the forecast becomes even more
uncertain with model disagreement over the location and timing of
shortwaves moving through broad synoptic troughing over the Great
Lakes. Therefore kept the slight chance to chance pops provided by
the NBM during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Isolated convection expected this afternoon given moderate
instability/moisture but limited forcing. Hi-res CAM's and
surface/satellite obs indicate potential for a gap around the
terminals with weak convergence boundary focused east of KSBN and
north of KFWA while southern wave remains focused south of KFWA.
Have therefore held off on thunder mention for now. Certainly
wouldn't rule out a stray storm at either site but confidence in
coverage and timing is just too low to mention. Very similar story
for later tonight/early Friday as cold front across central
Michigan slowly inches south. Better coverage expected but
thunder will still be hit and miss with high uncertainty on
timing. Also some potential for another round of early morning
stratus but signal in forecast soundings is weaker than this
morning's event and will hold off mentioning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Cobb
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...AGD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-281945-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 /237 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with a low
chance that some activity could last through the night. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible with wind or hail, but chances
are low. Localized heavy rain is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday night.
A few storms may be strong to severe late Friday afternoon and
evening with hail and wind the biggest threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ003-MIZ077-281945-
La Porte-Berrien-
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020 /237 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heat indices will be in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with a low
chance that some activity could last through the night. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible with wind or hail, but chances
are low. Localized heavy rain is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday night.
A few storms may be strong to severe late Friday afternoon and
evening with hail and wind the biggest threats.

Hazardous swimming conditions are expected at Lake Michigan beaches
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-281945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon. Severe weather
is unlikely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday night.
A few storms may be strong to severe late Friday afternoon and
evening with hail and wind the biggest threats.

Hazardous conditions likely for small craft Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
531 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW SPRINGVILLE        41.66N 86.78W
08/27/2020  M1.23 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   MESONET

            EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

SKIP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
538 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

INZ004-272215-
St. Joseph-
538 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH COUNTY...

At 537 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Gulivoire Park,
moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, Gulivoire Park, Lakeville, Wyatt and Woodland.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 8635 4164 8635 4167 8617 4152 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 269DEG 11KT 4159 8627

HAIL...0.25
WIND...55MPH

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE GULIVOIRE PARK    41.59N 86.23W
08/27/2020                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWNED ON A POWER LINE NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF ROOSEVELT RD. AND MIAMI RD.

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
603 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

INZ003-004-MIZ077-272245-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Berrien-
603 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHEASTERN LA PORTE AND SOUTH CENTRAL BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 603 PM EDT/503 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Three Oaks, or 8 miles northeast of La Porte, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Carlisle, Three Oaks, Galien, Byron, Hudson Lake, Hesston,
Springville and Rolling Prarie.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 48 and 64.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 44 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 1.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4165 8676 4176 8680 4183 8650 4166 8643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 259DEG 14KT 4172 8665

HAIL...0.25
WIND...50MPH

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
605 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGVILLE             41.69N 86.74W
08/27/2020                   LA PORTE           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN
            THE CITY OF SPRINGVILLE, IN. DETAILS NOT
            AVAILABLE.

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E SPRINGVILLE         41.68N 86.69W
08/27/2020  M3.61 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   MESONET

            EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 3
            HOURS.

&&

SKIP