Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
351 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and will
likely be accompanied by gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Lingering showers along with cooler weather can be expected
Tuesday through Thursday before warm and humid conditions arrive
for this coming weekend along with the chance for thunderstorms.
Highs will be mainly in the 70s Tuesday through Thursday and then
rise into the 80s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Last night, An outflow boundary had advanced ahead of the main
area of convection and had moved into a less conducive storm
environment over northeast Illinois. A cluster of cells had
developed over northeast Illinois along a low level theta E
convergent area near the Indiana line and were moving east. The
cells had deep warm cloud layers and little if any thunder from
most of the cells. Expect fairly disorganized localized heavy
showers with possibly a few rumbles of thunder through late this
afternoon in the vicinity of the theta E convergent boundary. A
more active pattern is just ahead this evening through most of
tonight as a potpourri of factors come together including upper
level jet support, an upper level disturbance moving into the area
from the south, insurgence of theta E air, the arrival of a cold
front along with the presence of lingering boundaries. The latest
CAMs along with other models do not show much of a back-building
potential in lieu of favoring a more progressive pattern. All
considered, it looks like the antecedently dry conditions along
with a fairly progressive pattern does not support much of a
widespread flood risk. However, locally heavy rainfall is likely
tonight and may produce local flooding. As far as the severe
weather potential, rapid storm development was occurring just west
of the Illinois line this afternoon where the explosive storm
growth was occurring along the old outflow boundary from last
night in an area of CAPE values approaching 3500 J/Kg per SPC
analysis. Can not rule out a marginally severe storm with wind
gusts above 50 mph west of highway 31 in the vicinity of the high
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Cooler weather is ahead Tuesday through Thursday behind a cold
front along with a chance for showers along with an isolated
storm as an upper low linger near James Bay and as weak
disturbances rotate around the low. Warmer and more humid air will
return Friday for the weekend with increasing chances for showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

KIWX radar showing a few showers down by KLAF but no signs of
strengthening or becoming more organized at this time. Short wave
energy ejecting eastward toward the area expected to provide
needed forcing to act on unstable environment leading to more
widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening/tonight with
lingering showers possible overnight. Cold front passing through
early morning hours will bring windshift to W/NW and residual low
level moisture will have MVFR/IFR ceilings till mid/late morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JAL

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-230900-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 /312 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly
west of I69. No severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rainfall
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-230900-
La Porte-Berrien-
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020 /312 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. No
severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous swimming conditions are expected Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-230900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Any storm can bring deadly lighting, gusty winds and high waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.