Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
746 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase later this
evening as a warm front lifts into the area. A few thunderstorms may
become strong to severe. Strong southwest winds and mainly dry
conditions will follow Sunday, with dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures returning early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Updated forecast to reduce prior sever mention and reflect recent
observational/forecast model trends. Sfc analysis shows composite
outflow/warm frontal zone stationary through cntrl IN/OH invof I-70.
Continued convective clustering noted through wrn/cntrl IN within
low level warm advection regime. This may yet clip far sern zones
yet prior to svr watch expiration at 00Z.

Otherwise 3hr pressure falls downstream of deepening sfc cyclone
over IA are well west and suggest little movement of warm frontal
zone sunset although better mixing noted currently into cntrl IL and
indicative of some northward push there. Nonetheless limited warm
sector destabilization expected here through this evening timed with
warm frontal push occuring beneath poor eml which lags well west
ahead of the cold front. However upstream convection lifting out of
northeast AR may yet pose some marginal wind risk toward midnight
southeast of US24, commensurate with vigorous flow spreading in
overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday and Sunday Night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Since the midday update covered convective concerns through the
overnight hours will focus short term on the Sunday/Sunday night
timeframe. With that being said, front is holding south so the
later timing looks to have won out. There is some potential for
heavy rain tonight, but think this will be more isolated so a
flood watch is not planned at this time.

Strong winds continue to be expected on Sunday behind the cold
front. There are a few models which linger the front across the
far east forecast area until 12-14z, but this the front will be
east of the area by then. Strong LLJ 50kts overspread the area
over the course of first half of the day with 700mb winds 50-55kt.
Some mixing of these winds to to the surface are possible so wind
gusts up to 50 mph are not off the table. A tight surface pressure
and 4 to 6 mb pressure change per 6 hour should result in sustain
winds of 20 to 30 mph to go along with the strong wind gust
potential. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 8am EDT until 8pm
EDT Sunday to cover the strong wind potential. Wind gusts drop
off Sunday night with sustained winds gradually diminishing as the
pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Focus of the forecast was on the near/short term portion of the
forecast.

Monday continues to be fairly dry as the upper low, which brought
storms to the area today, continues to slide east towards the
northeast US. Models continue to show another upper low
approaching the area, but model do seem to be reaching a consensus
that this system will stay south of the area. The next chance for
rain may hold off until the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Outside brief flight restrictions near term, primarily VFR expected
overnight outside of a period MVFR restriction in shra/tsra late
evening into early Sun morning. Ewd spread of more notable sfc pres
falls and ewd progression of convection into wrn OH will allow warm
front to finally mix north tonight in response to upstream approach
of deep cyclone lifting out of IA.

Primary focus is with vigorous convective cluster through se MO/srn
IL which will race northeast this evening and into the KFWA vcnty
toward 03Z. Any potential marginal severe risk with this cluster
should however remain south/east of the terminal. Secondary more
isolated convection expected along incoming cold front and into the
KSBN vcnty for a time toward 06Z.

Thereafter sharp mid level dry slot overspreads the area post
frontal with gusty swrly winds expected to ramp quickly Sun morning.
Sfc gusts to near 40 likely especially Sun aftn timed with steepest
sfc based lapse rates and greater mixed layer depth.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Sunday for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ077>081.

OH...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel/T
UPDATE...T
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

INZ003>009-012>017-020-022>025-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-290900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 /501 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall
are possible late this evening into early Sunday morning. The
rainfall from these storms may cause flooding of poor drainage areas
and rises on area rivers and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong winds are expected on Sunday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible. Winds diminish Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MIZ077-290900-
Berrien-
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

Isolated thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall
are possible late this evening into early Sunday morning. The
rainfall from these storms may cause flooding of poor drainage areas
and rises on area rivers and streams. Strong winds late tonight
behind a cold front will produce high waves on Lake Michigan which
could result in lakeshore flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

Strong winds are expected on Sunday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible. Winds diminish Sunday night.

Strong winds late tonight behind a cold front will produce high
waves on Lake Michigan which could result in lakeshore flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-290900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Isolate thunderstorms are possible overnight.

Windy conditions, with gales possible, are expected to develop late
tonight, which will be hazardous to small crafts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Windy conditions, with gales possible, will last through Sunday
evening, which will be hazardous to small crafts.

INZ026-027-032>034-OHZ016-024-025-290900-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall are
possible overnight. The rainfall from these storms may cause
flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on area rivers and streams.
Some storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong winds are expected on Sunday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible. Winds diminish Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

INZ018-OHZ002-004-005-015-290900-
Allen IN-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-
601 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall are
possible overnight. The rainfall from these storms may cause
flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on area rivers and streams.
Some storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong winds are expected on Sunday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible. Winds diminish Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1024 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

INZ006>008-MIZ080-290300-
Lagrange-Noble-Steuben-Branch-
1024 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STEUBEN...NORTHEASTERN NOBLE...
SOUTHEASTERN LAGRANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN BRANCH COUNTIES...

At 1024 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Rome City, or 8 miles southeast of Lagrange, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Angola around 1040 PM EDT.
  Fremont around 1045 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Flint, Lake Gauge,
Nevada Mills, Brushy Prairie, Pleasant Lake, Ray, Golden Lake, Big
Long Lake, Kinderhook and Salem Center.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 342 and 357.
 Interstate 69 in Michigan between mile markers 1 and 3.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 138 and 156.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4187 8488 4163 8481 4152 8512 4153 8519
      4150 8519 4148 8525 4156 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 240DEG 49KT 4157 8528

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...30MPH

JBALL