River Flood Warning 78, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
738 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was
drifting south. The system will bring another round of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain at times today to much of the forecast
area. Additional rises on rivers already in flood are expected.
Rain chances will greatly diminish tonight, although chilly highs
from 60 to 65 are expect today and Wednesday. Much warmer weather
is ahead this holiday weekend with chances for storms and highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

An upper low was over southern Illinois near Mt Vernon and was
drifting south. There was still a fairly good large scale flow of
moisture into this system over much of Ohio where large scale
flooding was occurring. Rainfall amounts just east of the
forecast area totaled nearly 2 inches on the other side of Findley
since yesterday evening. The latest radar and observations showed
another band of moderate to occasionally heavy rain was south of
Lima early this morning. This area should continue to more
northwest and spread over much of the forecast area early today.
Given the recent heavy rainfall, rises on rivers that are already
flooded are expected. Rain should diminish tonight with lingering
rain ending Wednesday. Conditions will remain cool today through
Wednesday with highs around 60 to 65 both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

An upper level ridge will build north of the Ohio River and bring
much warmer weather through the holiday weekend. There is solid
model agreement with temperatures above normal from around 80 to
85 all three days through Monday. For the second day in a row, it
looks like rain chances advertised by the model blend are too
high given the extent of an upper level ridge over the area. Some
energy in the form of disturbances from an upstream trof should
bring some storm chances the transition to more of a late
afternoon/evening late spring diurnal shower/storm scenario.
However, kept shower/storm chances limited to 40 percent given the
propensity of the blend to inflate rain chances late in the
forecast period in this type of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Slow moving upper level low will continue to keep LIFR/IFR
conditions in place this morning. This upper low will sag
southward into this evening which will eventually lessen chances
for light rain and improve cigs to MVFR/VFR tonight. The
combination of associated sfc low pressure across the Ohio Valley
and broad anticyclone across eastern Canada will keep a stout
easterly flow in place today. Gusts should drop off some this
evening, but terminals may maintain easterly gusts to 20 knots
into this evening.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ003.

MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
553 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-201000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
553 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 /453 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

River flooding will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

River flooding will continue Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ003-MIZ077-201000-
La Porte-Berrien-
553 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 /453 AM CDT Tue May 19 2020/

...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-201000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
553 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OTTAWA                  41.02N 84.04W
05/19/2020  M4.00 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   PUBLIC

            EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OTTAWA                  41.02N 84.04W
05/19/2020  M3.55 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM
            OTTAWA. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE EARLY
            SUNDAY.

&&