Flood Watch 1, NWS Northern Indiana

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Branch County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
326 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

A strong storm system will bring unseasonable warm and significant
rainfall of 3 to 4 inches to the area beginning late Thursday and
continuing through late Saturday. This will result in flooding of
rivers and low lying areas. The precipitation may change to a brief
mix of freezing rain and snow late Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Little of consequence this period. High pressure ridge centered
through se ON this evening will lift out in advance of weak wave
lifting through the nrn lakes. Robust warm advection develops late
tonight and deepens Thursday with a turn around in temps expected
comparing this aftn to tomorrow aftn. Otherwise slower nwd moisture
return seen with rain holding off until late Thu night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

...Significant river flood threat looms this weekend into next
week...

Primary question yet to be resolved is placement of overlapping lead
warm frontal band rain late Thu night/Friday and following warm
sector rain surge Fri night/Saturday. 12Z model consensus yesterday
fingered the upper Maumee/lower Wabash basin at greatest risk
although subsequent 00/new 12Z cycles have shifted a bit further nw.
Nevertheless many IWX river basins are implicated in the most
significant/longest duration of significant rainfall. And this is
further reflected in NAEFS flood probabilities with indicated
moderate to major flood potential.

No doubt entraining subtropical moisture plume ahead of this
strong/dynamic system and protracted duration of intense rainfall
lends credence to individual deterministic storm total qpf solutions
indicating highend 5+ inch amounts possible. And if correct with
higher amounts preceded with lighter ground saturating rains would
yield appreciable surface runoff. Nevertheless at a minimum
widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts look likely.

Any substantial winter precip threat is confined to overnight Sat as
cold air wraps in under departing upper low. This remains the most
uncertain period with as yet substantial model drift still
remaining. However should cold air wrap faster as ern outlier GFS
suggests, a narrow stripe of impactful snowfall exists central zones
versus far nw zones per EC. With lacking consensus will continue to
broad brush this period with snow mention and minimal accums.

Thereafter general downtrend of nrn stream heights will allow for a
more substantial cold air intrusion to spread south across the Great
Lakes/OH valley DYS9-10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2020

Lake effect snow showers can continue for the next few to several
hours at SBN. At this time, upstream winds are gradually becoming
NNW to N. This is indicative of incoming high pressure. As surface
winds continue to veer, this should shut down the snow showers.
Model guidance is handling this snow poorly; ending it too soon.
As high pressure settles in overnight, winds will diminish for a
time and skies can clear at FWA.

Low-level winds ramp up near/after 12z in response to a strong storm
system brewing over the Central US. Forecast soundings suggest winds
at 2,000 feet near 45-55 knots at the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
     MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Brown

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