Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

A frontal system is expected to move through the area around
Wednesday. In the wake of this front, high pressure is expected for
later this week, and on into the weekend. Another frontal system may
affect the area by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Convective cluster is expected to continue to affect the northern
zones for the next couple of hours, as the associated mid level
vorticity center drifts into northern Indiana. Additional
development possible farther southeast later this afternoon along
the trailing vorticity tail, as the air mass has become quite
unstable. Deep layer shear marginally favorable for strong wind
gusts, especially over the northwest zones this afternoon.

Additional convective development possible towards evening and
overnight, as a mid level short wave, currently approaching west
central Illinois, drifts towards the southern Great Lakes. A decent
amount of warm/moist advection expected tonight, as model data
suggest a 30 kt low level jet may develop by the early morning hours
of Wednesday. This may serve to keep convection going well into the
night. The presence of the low level jet, combined with progged
precipitable waters in excess of 2 inches, suggest a threat for
heavy rainfall amounts.

Based on above, will keep likely PoPs over the northwest zones
through the mid afternoon hours to cover the current activity.
Will also target higher PoPs after dark to cover the expected
development with the incoming short wave.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows tonight look
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Tonight's convection may still be lingering into Wednesday morning,
until the low level jet weakens. Model data suggest a cold front
will move into the area Wednesday afternoon, but model data suggests
the instability axis may get shoved south of the Ohio River by then.
Will keep chance PoPs going for Wednesday, as a result.

Otherwise, model data suggest an upper ridge will begin building
over the Midwest by the later portions of the week. The potential
exists for periodic convection to slide down the east side of the
ridge, but ensembles are in general fairly dry after Wednesday. Will
keep some PoPs going for the rest of the extended for now, but may
be able to start pulling PoPs at some point if models continue
towards a drier trend.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the next couple of days looks Ok for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 1239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The long term will be dominated by an upper ridge over the central
U.S. The ridge builds toward central Indiana Friday night and
Saturday, which should provide warm temperatures and fairly dry
conditions under subsidence. The ridge shows some signs of buckling
a bit as its axis trends back toward the plains through the rest of
the weekend, though, and into next week. This should equate to
warmer than normal temperatures throughout the long term along with
increasing dewpoints, with some evening thunderstorm chances due to
instability. There may also be some potential for overnight ridge
riding storms Sunday night and perhaps Monday night. Overall though
mainly a hot forecast with little in the way of widespread
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/00Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 751 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period, but with several
rounds of storms tonight into tomorrow, brief periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities could be possible within storms.

Active weather is expected throughout the TAF period. A line of
storms is entering central Indiana from the west at the start of
the period, making its way through sites early tonight. Models
also show better chances for rain early in the morning and again
tomorrow afternoon. In general, storms could occur at any point,
thus have gone with VCTS when not quite as confident in timing.
Winds are generally out of the SW from 5 to 10 kts increasing to
around 12 kts towards the end of the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
450 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
450 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: There are chances for thunderstorms late this afternoon and
and tonight. Some strong to severe storms are possible.

Hazards: Damaging winds, heavy rain and localized flooding,
lightning.

Timing: Best threat for severe storms will be until about 11 PM.
Heavy rainfall is possible from the late evening hours and
overnight.

Discussion: A front in the area along with upper disturbances will
bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible for much of the period. Isolated
severe storms are possible on Wednesday. Hot conditions with heat
index values at or over 100 may return this weekend.

Discussion: A front will meander across the area into the weekend,
interacting with warm and humid air to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this evening.

.STORM MOTION STATEMENT...

The expected storm motion today is from the west southwest at
35 MPH.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
909 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE ROCKVILLE         39.76N 87.21W
07/21/2020                   PARKE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THIS
            VICINITY.

&&

BHH

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