Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Indianapolis, IN

668 
WWUS53 KIND 211733
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
133 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

INC045-171-211745-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-200721T1745Z/
Fountain IN-Warren IN-
133 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN FOUNTAIN AND WARREN COUNTIES...

At 132 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Williamsport,
or 14 miles south of Templeton, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsport, Attica, West Lebanon, Newtown, Pine Village and
Rainsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 8753 4048 8709 4019 8709 4017 8753
      4044 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 265DEG 44KT 4031 8727 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
100 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

A couple of fronts plus warm and humid air will bring frequent
chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week.
Widespread temperatures in the 90s will return by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Rest of Today)...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the update...decreased PoPs during the morning especially in the
east and southeastern counties based on high resolution model output
as well as current satellite and observational trends. Left higher
chance PoPs in the western and northern counties for the afternoon,
but decreased a little in the south again due to latest model output
and current low cloud deck across the south. Some diurnal driven pop
up storms remain possible this afternoon into the evening, and
current line in Illinois could move across the northern half of the
forecast area later this afternoon, but some models continue to
weaken it. Current thinking is better forcing will arrive during the
tonight period with the help of a low level jet.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models
initialization was accepted for most items.

An stronger upper trough will move into central Indiana tonight.
A surface front will accompany the wave. The forcing from these
plus abundant moisture should lead to showers and thunderstorms
moving through. Went likely PoPs across the northern half of the
area where forcing will be strongest, with chance PoPs elsewhere.

Went with a relative lull in PoPs Wednesday morning with weaker
instability. However, with the front lingering in the area
Wednesday afternoon, went likely PoPs east (ahead of the front)
with chance PoPs west.

Kept some chance PoPs going Wednesday night with the front still
in the area.

Uncertainty is higher again for PoPs Thursday as there is some
question on where the front will end up. The NAM has the front
farther south and keeps the area dry, while other models have
rain. The NBM has likely PoPs across the southern half of the
area, but am not sure of this. However, given the uncertainty,
don't have enough confidence to change the initialization.

Low PoPs continue Thursday night again with the front around.

Generally stayed close to the NBM for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 1239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The long term will be dominated by an upper ridge over the central
U.S. The ridge builds toward central Indiana Friday night and
Saturday, which should provide warm temperatures and fairly dry
conditions under subsidence. The ridge shows some signs of buckling
a bit as its axis trends back toward the plains through the rest of
the weekend, though, and into next week. This should equate to
warmer than normal temperatures throughout the long term along with
increasing dewpoints, with some evening thunderstorm chances due to
instability. There may also be some potential for overnight ridge
riding storms Sunday night and perhaps Monday night. Overall though
mainly a hot forecast with little in the way of widespread
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 211800Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Convective cluster currently moving through eastern Illinois is
expected to affect the KLAF terminal in the 211800Z-212000Z time
frame. Brief IFR visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds
possible with this cluster. Questionable as to the extent the
remaining terminals will be affected by this cluster, as short
term models suggest the mid level feature associated with this
cluster will generally move off into northern Indiana with time.

Appears the convective threat will increase again towards/after
220000Z at the terminals, as a mid level short wave currently in
northern Missouri, tracks into northern Illinois later this
evening. Activity may continue well into the nighttime hours,
given a decent low level jet associated with this feature. CB
bases generally 025-040.

Otherwise, remnant ceilings 008AGL-015 in the vicinity of KHUF/KBMG
is in the process of mixing out. Surface winds 170-200 degrees at
8-11 kts this afternoon will veer a bit towards 190-220 at 4-7
kts after dark.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1018 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221430-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
1018 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: There are chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. Some
strong to severe storms are possible.

Hazards: Damaging winds, heavy rain and localized flooding,
lightning.

Timing: Thunderstorms are possible at any time but should be most
numerous during the late afternoon and evening hours, with some more
potential for heavy rain overnight. Some strong to severe storms are
possible mainly late this afternoon and during the evening, with the
best potential after 7 pm.

Discussion: A front in the area along with upper disturbances will
bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible for much of the period. Isolated
severe storms are possible on Wednesday. Hot conditions with heat
index values at or over 100 may return this weekend.

Discussion: A front will meander across the area into the weekend,
interacting with warm and humid air to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this evening.

.STORM MOTION STATEMENT...

The expected storm motion today is from the west southwest at
30 MPH.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind