Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Lincoln, IL

884 
WWUS53 KILX 100226
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
926 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ILC057-125-143-179-100235-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-200710T0245Z/
Fulton-Tazewell-Mason-Peoria-
926 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...WEST
CENTRAL TAZEWELL...NORTH CENTRAL MASON AND PEORIA COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.  However gusty winds are still possible with these
thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Illinois.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
Northwestern Logan, Southern Tazewell, and Northeastern Mason 
counties until 1000 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4096 8946 4081 8954 4080 8956 4078 8956
      4055 8969 4020 8994 4021 9035 4049 9005
      4096 8976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 264DEG 24KT 4097 8941 4055 8967 4032 8991 

$$

Auten

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
740 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

A cold front will track across the state tonight, bringing
scattered thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe this
evening with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain possible.
Any lingering rain will exit eastern Illinois Friday morning,
leaving most of the day dry. The heat and humidity will be
slightly lower for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Much of the southwest half of the CWA has been weakly capped this
afternoon. The exception is a narrow corridor currently near the
I-57 corridor. Isolated instability showers and storms will
persist over  eastern IL the next few hours. Additional isolated
storms possible near/north of I-74 where little capping is evident
based on visible satellite imagery.

The main weather concern is severe convective potential this
evening, as a shortwave and associated weak low and front
currently over east central IA, track east across IL. The
atmosphere ahead of this system will feature ample instability
with MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear while initially
weak, will increase to 25-30 kt with the approach of the upper
wave. This should be sufficient for organized storms/clusters to
track east/southeast out of Iowa and across primarily the northern
half of the CWA this evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear
to be the primary threat with hail secondary, mainly early in the
strongest updrafts due to high wet bulb zero heights. Tornado
threat still looks low and based on storm scale/mesoscale effects
to locally increased low level shear. As instability decreases
and storms outrun the better shear, a weakening trend should be
noted towards midnight as storms track into eastern IL.

Behind the front for late tonight and Friday, a period of brisk
(for mid- summer) west/northwest winds will overspread the area as
the gradient briefly tightens ahead of 1015 mb high pressure
building towards MO. Some 25 mph gusts are possible by late
Friday morning and into the afternoon. This "cold air" advection
should limit highs to the upper 80s, though with dewpoints
remaining in the lower 70s conditions will still be humid.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

The next chance for storms is tied to a shortwave dropping
southeast across the area Saturday night. While some convection
could develop Saturday afternoon, highest (chance) pops are
carried for Saturday night. Lingering storms to exit the area
Sunday morning, but the bulk of the day to be dry. Again a decent
surface pressure gradient behind this system for a period of
gustier northwest winds Sunday. 850 mb temps drop into the lower
teens C, should result in seasonable temperatures for Sunday and
Monday.

The main concern for much of the week is a large heat dome
currently building over the southwest and south central U.S. Early
next week a longwave trof developing out west will force this
strong upper ridge east/northeast towards the mid-Mississippi
River Valley. There is still some uncertainty in how far north
this ridge can build, as guidance shows a series of shortwaves
tracking across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, in a classic
ring of fire pattern. Current guidance suggests this activity will
stay north of the area, resulting in mainly dry but hot and humid
conditions. Widespread low to mid 90s highs expected for Tue-Thu,
with heat indices near heat index criteria (105 F) for Wed/Thu.
Slight to low chance pops primarily over the northern CWA through
the extended, closer to the stronger westerlies over the upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 739 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Line of convection is getting started to the west and should move
toward PIA and BMI this evening. With storms moving east-northeast
think PIA and BMI could get missed, though HRRR does still show
convection reaching these sites. So will just have VCTS for now
for couple of hours this evening until can get a better handle on
timing and if it will be on-station. Have also included
SPI/DEC/CMI with VCTS for couple of hours as well. Cigs should
remain VFR through the period, even with TS over/near stations.
Then broken clouds for several hours after precip moves out at all
sites. Tomorrow should be scattered clouds at all sites with
breezy winds out of the northwest.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>045-047>051-053-102015-
Cass-Champaign-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-
McLean-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-
Tazewell-Woodford-
313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. Some storms could
be severe, containing locally damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and
isolated hail. Locally heavy rain is also possible, and could lead
to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees are possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from around 6 pm to 11 pm.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

ILZ046-052-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-102015-
Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-Vermilion-
313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible tonight. There is a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms, containing locally damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees are possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed from around 9 pm to midnight.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

ILZ045-092115-
Champaign-
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VERMILION AND
NORTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rantoul, moving north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rainfall will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rantoul, Thomasboro, Gifford, Ludlow and Flatville.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 245 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 8804 4024 8823 4040 8822 4040 8793
      4038 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 196DEG 13KT 4031 8813

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
521 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RANTOUL                 40.30N 88.16W
07/09/2020                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER AND IMPASSABLE. UP
            TO FOUR FEET OF WATER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
812 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW KNOXVILLE          40.92N 90.30W
07/09/2020  M1.15 INCH       KNOX               IL   COCORAHS

            ACCUMULATION FROM 730 TO 800PM

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
838 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLIAMSFIELD           40.93N 90.02W
07/09/2020                   KNOX               IL   PUBLIC

            POWERLINE DOWN ON THE ROAD. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GALESBURG               40.95N 90.38W
07/09/2020  M2.06 INCH       KNOX               IL   AWOS

            1-HOUR TOTAL

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARMINGTON              40.70N 90.00W
07/09/2020  E55.00 MPH       FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RANTOUL                 40.30N 88.16W
07/09/2020                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER AND IMPASSABLE. UP
            TO FOUR FEET OF WATER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW KNOXVILLE          40.92N 90.30W
07/09/2020  M1.15 INCH       KNOX               IL   COCORAHS

            ACCUMULATION FROM 730 TO 800PM

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLIAMSFIELD           40.93N 90.02W
07/09/2020                   KNOX               IL   PUBLIC

            POWERLINE DOWN ON THE ROAD. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST
            MEDIA.

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GALESBURG               40.95N 90.38W
07/09/2020  M2.06 INCH       KNOX               IL   AWOS

            1-HOUR TOTAL

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARMINGTON              40.70N 90.00W
07/09/2020  E55.00 MPH       FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME

&&

ERWIN