Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Lincoln, IL

610 
WWUS53 KILX 222003
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ILC021-222013-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200622T2030Z/
Christian-
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3981 8902 3981 8922 3982 8924 3981 8926
      3981 8931 4004 8933 4005 8914 4005 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 178DEG 15KT 3988 8911 

$$

ILC107-115-167-222030-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200622T2030Z/
Logan-Sangamon-Macon-
303 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...EAST CENTRAL SANGAMON AND NORTHWESTERN MACON
COUNTIES...

At 303 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Niantic, or 9
miles west of Decatur, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Forsyth, Maroa, Mount Pulaski, Harristown, Warrensburg,
Illiopolis, Niantic and Latham.

This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 120 and 140.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 8902 3981 8922 3982 8924 3981 8926
      3981 8931 4004 8933 4005 8914 4005 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 178DEG 15KT 3988 8911 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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714 
WWUS53 KILX 222020
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ILC107-115-167-222030-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200622T2030Z/
Logan-Sangamon-Macon-
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...EASTERN SANGAMON AND NORTHWESTERN MACON
COUNTIES...

At 319 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Latham, or 13
miles southwest of Clinton, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pulaski and Latham. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 8907 3984 8931 4000 8933 4005 8914
      4005 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 173DEG 23KT 4001 8914 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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033 
WWUS53 KILX 222029
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ILC107-115-167-222039-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200622T2030Z/
Logan-Sangamon-Macon-
329 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...EASTERN
SANGAMON AND NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3993 8907 3984 8931 4000 8933 4005 8914
      4005 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 179DEG 17KT 4005 8914 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
as a cold front moves into the area. Locally heavy rain, gusty
winds, and dangerous lightning area possible. Dry weather is
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with cooler and less
humid conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Upper trof was pushing into IA/MO late this morning with several
shortwaves noted on water vapor imagery. At the surface, 1009 mb
low pressure was analyzed along the front in northwest MO. Outflow
from an earlier thunderstorm complex which grazed the far
northwest CWA had pushed near a Danville to St. Louis line at 11
am. This will likely be a focus for isolated/scattered
thunderstorm development through early afternoon. Beyond that we
expect to see an overall increase in thunderstorm coverage by mid
to late afternoon, as forcing increases ahead of the wave and
front to the west. Modest shear and mid level lapse rates will
promote some stronger storms, with pulse downburst wind gusts
being the main severe threat. Slow storm motion and an increasing PW
airmass (1.8-1.9" by 00z) will lead to a locally heavy rain threat
with the stronger storms, capable of dumping a couple inches of
rain in less than one hour. Raised highs a few degrees into the
upper 80s except mid 80s northwest of the IL River. With dewpoints
near 70F, peak afternoon heat indices will reach 90-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Starting the morning off dry across central and southeast
Illinois, although some light patchy fog has begun to develop
across southeast Illinois this morning. This should spread across
southeastern Illinois and some locations in eastern Illinois, as
current reports indicate much of Indiana under patchy fog. This is
due to the clear skies, and abundant sfc moisture evaporating, and
is expected to burn off quickly after sunrise.

Looking at radar trends over the past few hours, watching a
developing cluster of storms in northern MO and south central IA.
These continue a slow ene progression, and should track across the
Mississippi through the morning. Some of this storms are expected
to clip portions of the CWA, mainly ne of the IL River Valley.
Model depiction has this line lifting into northern IL through
the morning, holding dry conditions in place throughout much of
the coverage area. As the cold front begins to approach the
Midwest this afternoon, expecting shower and storm activity to
ramp up and overspread the region. A Marginal Risk for severe
storms covers the entire ILX CWA today, with the main threats
being wind damage and hail. With saturated soils, and the numerous
areas of water lingering from the past couple of days, some
flooding could occur today with storms.

This system will finally push through the region tonight, bringing
cooler air to the region, along with drier conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

With the cooler air filtering in, highs are only forecast in the
upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Also expecting lower
Td values, which will bring relief in terms of atmospheric
moisture across the region.

Unfortunately, the Low pressure system in the upper levels does
not quickly exit the area behind fropa. The sfc Low will lift
through the lower Great Lakes region into eastern Canada by
Wednesday morning, however with the cyclonic rotation, light
moisture could be ushered through the upper Midwest into the local
area Tuesday afternoon. This could bring light drizzle or showers
to the region, mainly along and northeast of I-74. This pattern
will also hold clouds overhead of the region, aiding the cooler
temperatures around the Midwest through mid-week.

Warmer conditions begin to return during the second half of the
work week. Again with the continuation of weak upper level
cyclonic pattern flow, as the Low slides ne, chances for light
precip will linger into the second half of the week. These chances
will be limited, however cannot rule out the possibility.

High pressure tries to ridge into se US late week, but will be
over- powered by the flattening pattern due to another approaching
Low pressure system from the western US. This looks to track
through the central Plains next weekend, bringing another sfc Low
through the upper Plains/Midwest. It appears the ridge will
provide some directional movement of next weekend's
precip...however this will need to be monitored for changes, which
could bring more precip into the region with a southerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

A couple of boundaries will be the focus for convective
development in central and eastern IL this afternoon through the
evening. A weak outflow boundary from early morning t-storms
extended from just east of Taylorville toward KCMI-KIKK. Isolated
showers and t-storms have already developed along this boundary,
and will continue to do so as the atmosphere continues to become
more unstable early this afternoon.

In addition, low pressure in southeast IA was along a front that
extended from eastern Iowa through central MO. This front will
advance toward central IL early this evening, and into eastern IL
by late evening. This will be the main focusing mechanism for
t-storms and periodic MVFR conditions, mainly due to lower
visibility in moderate/heavy showers. Transitioned all of the
t-storms out of central IL between 02-04z, and in eastern IL by
06z. Should see some lingering showers behind the front, along
with MVFR ceilings after 06z. Increasing subsidence behind the
front and increasing northwest winds after daybreak should break
up the ceilings and return conditions to VFR levels.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...25
SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-231715-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Fulton-Knox-
Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-
Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the area this afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds
and hail the main threats. Very heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-231715-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the area this afternoon and
tonight. Some of the storms could be strong to severe this
afternoon and this evening, with strong winds and hail the main
threats. Very heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

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