Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
316 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

A cold front will trigger a line of strong thunderstorms across
central Illinois late this afternoon into early this evening. Once
the front exits into Indiana by around midnight, the storms will
come to an end and a much cooler airmass will spill into the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

21z/3pm radar imagery shows a narrow line of strong to severe
thunderstorms along an advancing cold front from near KSQI to just
west of KIJX. The airmass ahead of the storms has become modestly
unstable, but highly sheared...with MLCAPEs of 500-1000J/kg noted
west of the I-55 corridor. The strongest low-level shear is
focused across northwest Illinois, with 0-1km storm relative
helicity values greater than 250m2/s2 from Peoria northward. It
appears the primary threat will be 50-60mph wind gusts: however,
a few brief tornadoes may spin up along the line...particularly
north of a Havana to Bloomington line over the next couple of
hours. Once the sun sets, daytime instability will wane and the
storms will tend to weaken as they cross the I-55 corridor into
east-central Illinois by early evening. The decaying line of
convection will push into Indiana after 03z/9pm, with only a few
lingering showers persisting across the E/SE until shortly after
midnight. Once the cold front passes, winds will veer to the W/NW
and skies will clear from west to east. Overnight lows will range
from around 30 degrees northwest of the Illinois River...to the
middle 40s south of I-70. High pressure will build into the region
on Wednesday, providing ample sunshine and light winds. High
temperatures will only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Cool/dry weather will be on tap for Thursday with highs reaching
the middle to upper 50s. A short-wave trough will track from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes by late in the day, pushing a
re-enforcing shot of cooler air into central Illinois late
Thursday into Friday. As high pressure shifts east of the region,
warm-advection will develop by Friday night...with most model
solutions suggesting clouds and a period of light precip late
Friday night into Saturday. Thanks to chilly overnight lows in the
lower to middle 30s, may see a rain/snow mix or perhaps all
snow...mainly along/north of I-72. No accumulation is expected.
Light rain showers will persist through the day Saturday before
skies clear and temperatures rebound into the upper 50s and lower
60s by Sunday. After that, another fast-moving, but dry cold front
will bring cooler readings in the 50s for Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

MVFR ceilings have developed across much of central Illinois late
this morning: however, these clouds will tend to scatter/lift to
low VFR this afternoon. Winds will be very strong throughout the
day, with southerly gusts reaching 35-40kt. Line of convection
currently from eastern Iowa southward into central Missouri will
track through the area late this afternoon/evening. Based on radar
timing tools and latest HRRR, have timed thunder into KPIA between
22z and 23z...and further east to KCMI between 01z and 02z. Once
the line of storms passes, winds will veer to W/SW and continue
gusting 25-30kt through the evening. Winds will gradually diminish
to around 10kt late tonight into Wednesday morning as skies become
clear.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>053.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
400 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-111100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
400 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A fast moving line of thunderstorms will push east of the I-55
corridor by early this evening. The primary threat will be
damaging winds: however, a brief tornado will also be possible
along the line. Southerly winds will gust 40-45 mph until the
storms pass, then winds will veer to the west and continue to gust
30-35 mph through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 6 pm. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the National Weather
Service while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

ILZ038-042>046-051>053-111100-
Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-McLean-Piatt-Sangamon-
Vermilion-
400 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A fast moving line of thunderstorms will push east of the I-57
corridor by mid-evening. Southerly winds will gust 40-45 mph
until the storms pass, then winds will veer to the west and
continue to gust 30-35 mph through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Jasper-Lawrence-Moultrie-Richland-Shelby-
400 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A fast moving line of thunderstorms will push east of the I-57
corridor by mid-evening. Southerly winds will gust 30-35 mph
until the storms pass, then winds will veer to the west and
continue to gust to around 30 mph through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Barnes

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

ILZ036-040-041-047>051-102145-
Scott-Sangamon-Mason-Morgan-Menard-Schuyler-Cass-Fulton-
257 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCOTT...WESTERN MENARD...SOUTHERN
FULTON...WEST CENTRAL SANGAMON...CASS...SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...
SOUTHWESTERN MASON AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CST...

At 257 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Astoria to 11 miles southeast of
Pittsfield. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Beardstown, Virginia, Winchester, Alexander, Ashland,
Meredosia, Bluff Springs, Pleasant Plains, Bluffs, Franklin,
Murrayville, Chandlerville, Woodson, Chapin, Tallula, Arenzville,
Bath, Easton and Kilbourne.

This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 43 and 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for west central
Illinois.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3978 9061 3983 9057 3985 9058 3990 9056
      3992 9054 3997 9051 3999 9053 4017 9046
      4024 8979 3952 9002 3952 9058 3958 9058
      3969 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 255DEG 31KT 4020 9040 3950 9065

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELMWOOD                 40.78N 89.97W
11/10/2020  E50.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            0.5 INCH HAIL OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME

&&

ERWIN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KICKAPOO                40.80N 89.75W
11/10/2020                   PEORIA             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AI 40.67N 89.68W
11/10/2020  M59.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEKIN                   40.57N 89.63W
11/10/2020  E60.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
354 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
11/10/2020  M46.00 MPH       MACON              IL   ASOS

1222 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.84N 89.68W
11/10/2020  M45.00 MPH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELMWOOD                 40.78N 89.97W
11/10/2020                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APARTMENT BUILDING ROOF BLOWN OFF. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELMWOOD                 40.78N 89.97W
11/10/2020  E50.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            0.5 INCH HAIL OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME

0317 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KICKAPOO                40.80N 89.75W
11/10/2020                   PEORIA             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AI 40.67N 89.68W
11/10/2020  M59.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEKIN                   40.57N 89.63W
11/10/2020  E60.00 MPH       TAZEWELL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
405 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.84N 89.68W
11/10/2020  M50.00 MPH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N PEORIA              40.82N 89.61W
11/10/2020                   PEORIA             IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW EAST PEORIA       40.74N 89.59W
11/10/2020  M63.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ERWIN