Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Lincoln, IL

433 
WWUS53 KILX 101939
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILC057-113-123-143-175-179-203-102015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200810T2015Z/
Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Stark-Tazewell-McLean-Peoria-
239 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR MARSHALL...WOODFORD...NORTHEASTERN FULTON...EASTERN STARK...
NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN AND PEORIA COUNTIES...

At 238 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near McNabb to near Varna to near Peoria to near 
Glasford, moving east at 55 mph.  Strong winds persist for some time 
after the initial gusts

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported a wind gust to 61 mph in 
         Hanna City at 230 PM.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Peoria, Pekin, Canton, Eureka, Lacon, East Peoria, Morton,
Washington, Bartonville, Chillicothe, Creve Coeur, West Peoria,
Metamora, Germantown Hills, Marquette Heights, El Paso, Henry,
Farmington, Minonk and Roanoke.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 155 between mile markers 30 and 31.
 Interstate 39 between mile markers 10 and 40.
 Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 14.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 76 and 117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4123 8964 4115 8964 4115 8933 4111 8936
      4110 8905 4093 8905 4092 8893 4075 8893
      4075 8899 4067 8898 4066 8904 4063 8904
      4063 8910 4060 8914 4062 8933 4058 8954
      4056 9016 4088 8979 4124 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 280DEG 46KT 4112 8923 4100 8929 4075 8955 4057
8988

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Barker

701 
WWUS53 KILX 101956
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILC175-102005-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200810T2015Z/
Stark-
256 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN STARK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4115 8933 4111 8936 4110 8905 4093 8905
      4092 8893 4075 8893 4075 8899 4067 8898
      4066 8904 4063 8904 4063 8910 4060 8914
      4062 8933 4058 8954 4056 9016 4088 8979
      4097 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 277DEG 55KT 4109 8890 4097 8896 4072 8922 4054
8955

$$

ILC057-113-123-143-179-203-102015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200810T2015Z/
Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Peoria-
256 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR MARSHALL...WOODFORD...NORTHEASTERN FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
TAZEWELL...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN AND PEORIA COUNTIES...

At 255 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Streator to 6 miles northeast of Minonk to near
Eureka to near Tremont, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Peoria, Pekin, Canton, Eureka, Lacon, East Peoria, Morton,
Washington, Bartonville, Chillicothe, Creve Coeur, West Peoria,
Metamora, Germantown Hills, Marquette Heights, El Paso, Henry,
Farmington, Minonk and Roanoke.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 155 between mile markers 30 and 31.
 Interstate 39 between mile markers 10 and 40.
 Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 14.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 76 and 117.

LAT...LON 4115 8933 4111 8936 4110 8905 4093 8905
      4092 8893 4075 8893 4075 8899 4067 8898
      4066 8904 4063 8904 4063 8910 4060 8914
      4062 8933 4058 8954 4056 9016 4088 8979
      4097 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 277DEG 55KT 4109 8890 4097 8896 4072 8922 4054
8955

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Barker

625 
WWUS53 KILX 102017
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
317 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILC057-113-123-143-179-203-102024-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-200810T2015Z/
Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Peoria-
317 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARSHALL...WOODFORD...
NORTHEASTERN FULTON...NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN AND
PEORIA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds to 50 mph will still be possible behind these thunderstorms.

A warning remains in effect for much of Tazewell and McLean Counties 
until 330 PM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4115 8933 4111 8936 4110 8905 4093 8905
      4092 8893 4075 8893 4075 8899 4067 8898
      4066 8904 4063 8904 4063 8910 4060 8914
      4062 8933 4058 8954 4056 9016 4088 8979
      4097 8957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 277DEG 55KT 4106 8854 4094 8860 4069 8886 4051
8919

$$

Barker

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
104 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Hot and humid weather will prevail across central Illinois
today...with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will top out in the upper
80s and lower 90s, while peak heat index values exceed 100
degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Focus is on severe squall line currently pushing into central IA.
Damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph have already been reported with
this system. Upscale growth is expected this afternoon as the
downstream environment remains favorable. While deep layer shear
is limited at 20-25 kt, high instability at 4-5k J/kg MLCAPE over
central/southern IL will dominate the modest shear for an
enhanced damaging wind threat. With the development of a rear
inflow jet in central IA, an organized bow echo is likely to
affect the northern parts of the CWA this afternoon. Potential is
there for widespread damage resulting from 70+ mph wind gusts.
System will likely track east/southeast along the northern edge of
the max CAPE gradient, putting areas near/north of I-74 at
greatest risk. Current timing suggests areas near GBG to be
affected by 130 pm, and with the line tracking around 55 mph,
exiting into Indiana by 4-5 pm. Very high rainfall rates will lead
to a flash flood threat, though with the forward speed this may
be more focused on urban areas. Ahead of the line, and to the
south of areas affected, heat will be the other concern. Highs
reaching the lower 90s will combine with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s, for peak heat indices near 105F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

While the primary 850mb jet streak is currently oriented from
Texas to Iowa, a weaker 20-30kt branch is noted on regional VAD
data nosing into west-central Illinois. Despite short-wave ridging
and the lack of a surface focusing mechanism, mid-level WAA
associated with the jet will be enough to trigger widely scattered
convection across the KILX CWA over the next few hours. These
storms will track E/NE and will be primarily located along/east of
I-57 by sunrise. Once this activity pushes into Indiana, a lull in
precip chances will be noted from mid-morning through early
afternoon, before attention turns to the development of strong to
severe convection in advance of a cold front later in the day.

The airmass ahead of the front will become very unstable, with
HREF ensemble mean SBCAPES of 3000-4000J/kg. Despite favorable
instability and synoptic lift associated with a vigorous short-
wave pushing into the Great Lakes, deep-layer shear will remain
weak...as evidenced by 0-6km bulk shear values of only around
20kt. Given the weak wind shear, the main severe weather threat
this afternoon will be damaging wind gusts as a line of storms
accelerates E/SE out of Iowa after 18z/1pm. While model solutions
vary greatly, will be relying heavily upon the 06z HRRR which has
performed quite well over the past couple of days. As a result,
think the line of storms will arrive in the Illinois River Valley
between 18z/1pm and 20z/3pm...then will track southeastward across
the area and depart the far SE CWA after 02z/9pm. In addition to
potentially damaging wind gusts, precipitable water values of
2.00-2.25 suggest the possibility of heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding. Before the storms arrive, afternoon high
temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s...with
heat index values of 100-105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

00z Aug 10 models have continued the recent trend of pushing the
cold front slightly further southward before it stalls...resulting
in reduced rain chances. While there is still some uncertainty
regarding the exact southern position of the front, it now appears
likely that the northern half of the CWA will see mostly dry
weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, with scattered showers/thunder
persisting south of the I-72 corridor. The remnants of the front
will then lift back northward by the end of the week, setting the
stage for additional rain chances across the board Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Main issue is timing severe squall line currently in eastern IA.
This is expected to track east/southeast this afternoon, highest
confidence for this to impact PIA/BMI/CMI from 19-23z. The line
will be tracking quickly at around 60 kt, with similar wind speeds
possible at the surface. Lower confidence that storms will impact
SPI/DEC so only included tempo group here, where storms should be
more scattered mid/late afternoon. After this window of active
weather, VFR TAFs should prevail tonight through 18z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...25
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-111645-
Champaign-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Peoria-
Piatt-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and this evening.
Widespread damaging wind gusts are possible with the storms this
afternoon. Heavy rainfall could pose a flash flood threat,
especially in urban areas. Hail is also possible in the strongest
storms.

The heat index is expected to climb between 100 to 105 degrees
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Additional storms are possible from Wednesday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon hours. These storms are currently not
expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 1 pm and 6 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ040-047>052-111645-
Cass-Christian-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-
1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and this evening. A few
of the storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy
downpours.

The heat index is expected to climb between 100 to 106 degrees
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Additional storms are possible from Tuesday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon hours. These storms are currently not
expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 2 pm and 7 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ053>057-061>063-111645-
Clark-Coles-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Macon-Moultrie-Shelby-
1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and this evening. A few
of the storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy
downpours.

The heat index is expected to climb between 99 to 105 degrees
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Additional storms are possible from Tuesday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon hours. These storms are currently not
expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 pm and 8 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ066>068-071>073-111645-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1140 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and this evening.
A few of the storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and
heavy downpours.

The heat index is expected to climb between 100 to 103 degrees
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Additional storms are possible from Tuesday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon hours. These storms are currently not
expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 9 pm. Please
relay any information about