Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Lincoln, IL

072 
WWUS53 KILX 082126
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
426 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ILC057-082145-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200408T2145Z/
Fulton-
426 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR FULTON COUNTY...

At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New
Philadelphia, or 13 miles west of Lewistown, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Lewistown, Cuba, Astoria, Vermont, St. David, Ipava, Table
Grove, Dunfermline, Bernadotte, Smithfield, Bryant, Banner,
Liverpool, Marietta, Duncan Mills, Marbletown, Little America and
Fiatt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9044 4055 8990 4044 8993 4039 8999
      4037 9004 4033 9005 4031 9007 4029 9008
      4026 9011 4024 9012 4022 9016 4018 9020
      4025 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 277DEG 38KT 4045 9041 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

37

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

A strong cold front will cross the area late this afternoon and
evening, bringing a good chance for thunderstorms. Severe storms
are possible, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts being
the primary threats. Windy and much colder air will follow the
frontal passage, for Thursday. Spotty rain showers will also be
possible on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Main concern is potential of severe storms late this afternoon and
evening. A low pressure system is projected to slide east across
northern Illinois, with a cold front rotating around to the south
of the low with increasing speed this evening.

Deep layer moisture is lacking with the expected line of storms,
similar to yesterday. However, we are not expecting a cap to
limit the updraft initiation. And the leading edge of this cold
air mass will be steep, enhancing the initial push from ground
level. An inverted-V sounding in the lowest 200-300 mb is
pointing toward increased risk of damaging downburst winds.
Instability is a bit lower than yesterday, with MLCAPEs of
1000-1500 J/kg, but 0-6km bulk shear of 60-75 KT will help support
severe storm development. Sounding analysis shows strong omega in
the cloud bearing layer and above, so once the storms start
developing, updrafts will reach the equilibrium level quickly.
Freezing level on the 18z KILX special sounding showed up at 9.4K
FT, which supports large hail as well.

The line progression looks to reach our NW counties from Knox to
Schuyler between 3-4 pm, advancing quickly to the E-SE across
central and SE Illinois. An approximate departure from our SE
counties is timed in the high resolution models between 8-9 pm.

A blast of NW winds will follow the front this evening, with 20-30
mph winds for a few hours. Winds will diminish after midnight
before ramping back up Thursday morning. NW winds will approach
Wind Advisory criteria Thursday afternoon (sustained 30 mph, and/or
frequent gusts of 45-57 mph).

Steep low level lapse rates and the passage of a 500mb tough axis
will support cloud development during the heat of the day, with
scattered rain showers Thursday afternoon. Better chances of rain
showers will be north of I-72/74-Danville. Enough cold air aloft
could trigger a few snow showers in northern Illinois, but did not
introduce any snow into our forecast at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Northwest winds will diminish Thursday evening, but remain 10-20
mph through the night. A chilly night is expected, with freezing
temps forecast for nearly all of our CWA, except for along Highway
50 between Flora and Lawrenceville. The lows in that area should
remain just above freezing. The sustained winds will reduce the
chances of frost formation, but freezing temperatures would still
cause damage to any sensitive budding vegetation where the
growing season has started in portions of southeast Illinois.

Friday will see sunny skies and continued chilly conditions, as a
surface ridge center progresses south through the Plains. We will
remain on the colder NE quadrant of that low, with highs in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

Upper level ridging on Saturday will start a warming trend for a
couple days. However, rain chances will increase on Saturday as
well, due to a warm frontal circulation developing across Illinois
from low pressure developing in the western Plains. Rain chances
will continue on Sunday as that low progresses toward southern
Illinois, eventually passing to our east Sunday night. A few
rumbles of thunder could develop Sunday afternoon and evening,
depending on the position of the warm front and track of the low.

Even colder air will settle into the area following that system,
with lows Monday night through Wednesday night below freezing in
our entire CWA. A few northern locations could even see lows in
the mid 20s.

While individual shortwaves are tough to time at this point,
scattered rain showers and even spotty snow showers will be
possible in the Monday night through Tuesday night time frame.
Precip should end by Wednesday morning, as much below normal
temperatures continue through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through around 21z this afternoon,
then a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will rapidly advance
across the area between 21z and 02z. Have continued the storm
timing for about a 2 hour window where the worst conditions will
be occurring. IFR vis in heavy rain could occur, although most vis
reduction should be MVFR. A strong cold front will quickly bring
an end to the rain, and northwest winds gusting 25-30 knots during
the late evening through shortly after midnight. After the gusts
subside for the remainder of the night, northwest winds will
increase quickly tomorrow morning into the 15G30KT range. Higher
gusts are likely Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
307 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ILZ027>031-037-038-091200-
Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
307 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon. A few of them will
be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Northwest winds will gust up to 40 mph on Thursday, causing travel
difficulty for high profile vehicles.

Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing Thursday night,
and again Monday night. This may damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 pm and 6 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ036-040-041-091200-
Fulton-Mason-Schuyler-
307 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and early evening. Very large hail is the primary
concern, along with damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Northwest winds will gust from 35 to 40 mph on Thursday, causing
travel difficulty for high profile vehicles.

Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing Thursday night,
and again Monday night. This may damage sensitive vegetation.

Flooding on the Illinois River will continue for several more
days from Havana to Beardstown.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 8 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

A conference call for emergency managers will be held at noon.

ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091200-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-
De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Logan-Macon-
Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Piatt-Richland-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-
Vermilion-
307 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and early evening. Very large hail is the primary
concern, along with strong damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Northwest winds will gust up to 40 mph on Thursday, causing travel
difficulty for high profile vehicles.

Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing Thursday night,
and again Monday night. This may damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6 pm and 9 pm. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

A conference call for emergency managers will be held at noon.

Barker