Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
334 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
each day this week. However, there will be plenty of dry hours
each day. Temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s are
expected through Friday, then lower 90s return over the weekend
into early next week as hot and humid conditions prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

A stationary front positioned across central IL roughly from SW to
NE will be the focus for storm development the rest of the
afternoon and evening. An MCV exciting NE MO will enhance storm
development in an air mass that has recovered from earlier storms.
Several hours of sunshine have boosted MLCAPEs into the 2500-3500
J/kg range, especially south of I-72. A 72 mph wind gust was
measured upstream in Pittsfield, indicated the downburst potential
of this system. Have gone with Likely PoPs through the evening
across a majority of the CWA, as a consensus of the CAMs are
showing additional storm development early this evening just east
of the IL River. That complex should progress southeastward into
the overnight hours, lingering in our SE counties after midnight.

A lull in the storms is expected for the early morning hours over
a majority of the CWA. Storm development on Wed will be triggered
by the arrival of a cold front from the NW, with the front
reaching a line from Rushville to Champaign by 6 pm. Have
continued with an increasing chance PoP coverage Wed afternoon as
a result.

Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, with muggy dewpoint
depressions of zero to 2 degrees. Can not rule out some locally
dense fog if any clearing can manage to develop in areas that pick
up rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The cold front will continue to progress southward Wed night,
keeping storm chances going in the southern counties. The front
stalls on Thursday morning across our central CWA before
continuing southward. Therefore, high chance PoPs were
concentrated south of I-72 Thursday along and ahead of the front.

The front then returns north as a warm front on Friday, keeping a
threat of storms in our entire area. That FROPA will trigger a
warming trend that will result in high temps climbing into the
lower 90s this weekend. Heat index readings are projected to climb
near or just above 105F across central IL, which would trigger a
Heat Advisory if that forecast holds. Storm chances would be
suppressed by a capping layer aloft and subsident forcing under
high pressure. No obvious trigger for storms is expected until a
cold front arrive next week Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

Aviation concerns are tied to convective trends this afternoon and
evening. Some brief low MVFR clouds will linger near PIA at the
start of the 18z TAF period, but should mix out and become VFR by
19z.

CAMs are showing next wave of storms developing early this
afternoon, which radar and satellite trends support. Have included
an early afternoon TEMPO for storms at SPI and DEC, and may have
to expand that to include CMI by mid afternoon. A wave of storms
will fill in roughly along I-72 then gradually shift to the
southeast this evening. SPI, DEC and CMI will have the best
chances of storms through this evening. Have continued a VCTS at
PIA and BMI for late afternoon into evening, but may be able to
reduce that time as convective initiation trends reveal
themselves this afternoon.

Winds look to remain S-SW the next 24 hours, with prevailing winds
mainly at or below 10kt.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
350 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-222100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-
Edgar-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-
Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-
Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
350 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, before
diminishing after midnight. Some of the storms may become severe.
Damaging winds are the main concern, although an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. There is also potential for flooding from the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will remain a concern through Friday. At
this time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Hot and humid conditions will return this weekend, with the heat
index reaching 100 to 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. The most likely time frame is
through 5 pm west of I-55, and through 8 pm east of I-55. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

ILZ066>068-071>073-222100-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
350 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, before
diminishing later tonight. A few of these storms may be strong to
briefly severe, with damaging winds the main concern. There is
also potential for flooding from the stronger storms.

Minor flooding on the Little Wabash River near Clay City, while
the Embarras River near Lawrenceville is expected to stay just
below flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will remain a concern through Friday. The
storms on Wednesday may be strong to briefly severe. The severe
weather potential for Thursday and Friday is uncertain at this
time.

Hot and humid conditions will return this weekend, with the heat
index reaching 100 to 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, mainly this evening. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Shimon

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