Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

795 
WWUS53 KILX 270852
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
352 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

ILC025-049-079-159-270915-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200327T0915Z/
Jasper-Richland-Clay-Effingham-
352 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...NORTHERN CLAY AND
SOUTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 352 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bogota, or 9
miles southwest of Newton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Olney, Newton, Louisville, Watson, Dieterich, Edgewood, Bible Grove,
Wheeler, Iola, Sailor Springs, Bogota, Dundas, Ingraham, West
Liberty, Mason, Wakefield, Wendelin, Newton Lake, Sam Parr State Park
and Elliotstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 142 and 153.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 78 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 8870 3891 8870 3891 8881 3903 8881
      3907 8808 3873 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 266DEG 39KT 3889 8829 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Deubelbeiss

600 
WWUS53 KILX 270914
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
414 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

ILC025-049-079-159-270923-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200327T0915Z/
Jasper-Richland-Clay-Effingham-
414 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...
NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 415 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with additional thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3879 8870 3891 8870 3891 8881 3903 8881
      3907 8808 3873 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 266DEG 39KT 3890 8804 

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Showers and thunderstorms will begin moving into central Illinois
after midnight, with potential for large hail with the stronger
storms. While a break in the showers and storms is expected toward
late Friday morning, rain will become widespread again later in
the day. A potent storm system will move into the region
Saturday, bringing additional severe thunderstorms. Expect mild
temperatures and an increasing temperature trend, reaching the 70s
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Frontal boundary is draped close to I-70 this evening, where
temperatures remain in the 60s south of there. Further north,
northeast winds are pushing cooler air southward, with 40s
prevailing near Peoria and Galesburg. Some light rain and drizzle
lingers from near Lincoln and Bloomington east, but has been
fading as of late.

Some updates were made a little while ago to adjust the rain
trends through Thursday morning. Cluster of thunderstorms is
expected to develop across eastern Kansas this evening, then track
eastward. Latest HRRR model brings them into the western CWA
toward 2 am, and moving across the area through sunrise. Freshly
issued SPC Day1 outlook brought the slight risk into a good chunk
of the south half of the CWA (Quincy-Decatur southeast) with a
concern of large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

A frontal boundary continues to sag slowly southward into central
IL, held up by low pressure still in the vicinity of St. Louis. As
this low moves eastward, the showers over northern and into parts
of central IL should move eastward for a break in precipitation.
The front will stall out just south of the area early Friday with
showers and elevated thunderstorms forming north of the front
again Friday morning, spreading northeastward into central IL.
With mainly elevated instability and a strongly sheared
environment in central IL, the main threat will be large hail, but
there appears to be some wind threat also, mainly I-70 corridor
southward closer to the surface front. Temperatures should feature
a large range, with lows ranging from low to mid 40s I-72
northward, up to mid 50s south of I-70 tonight. Friday, highs
should range from upper 50s/low 60s I-72/Danville northward, to
near 70 south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

A potent 988 mb low is forecast to lift from the central Plains
into the vicinity of northeast Iowa Saturday, lifting a strong
warm front through central IL, and bringing mid 60s dewpoints and
associated 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE along with strong 70+ kt sfc-6km
bulk shear. These ingredients combined with lift associated with
the system could bring significant severe thunderstorm potential,
and SPC indicates a slight risk for wind damage and hail. Timing
should be late morning through afternoon, early evening in the
east. Temperatures should rise to at least the low 70s, possibly
higher if any sun can develop Saturday afternoon. Brisk southerly
winds around 20 mph with higher gusts can be expected.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will trend down strongly for
Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, with dry
conditions. Brisk 20-25 mph westerly winds and gusts well into
the 30-40 mph range look likely for Sunday. Dry weather looks to
prevail through Monday, then another southern stream system could
potentially bring more rain as far northern as central IL midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

A frontal boundary, currently extending from northern KY thru
southern parts of IL and MO from Evansville IN to Springfield MO,
will lift back north into southeast IL on Friday afternoon, and
into central IL by late Fri evening. The 1st wave of showers and
elevated thunderstorms tied to the 850 mb frontal boundary over
northern MO will track ENE into central IL during overnight and
affect SPI and DEC in next 1-2 hours and late tonight to reach PIA
and BMI. IFR ceilings will become more common during overnight
with convection, while vsbys lower to IFR to MVFR. Convection
becomes more widely scattered during mid/late morning over central
IL as low level jet weakens with ceilings lifting between 500-1500
ft toward midday Fri and vsbys 4-6 miles. More widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms to develop over central IL by late
Fri afternoon and continue Fri evening as warm front approaches,
with ceilings lowering back to IFR along with IFR to MVFR vsbys
returning with the convection. NE winds 8-13 kts overnight to veer
east Fri afternoon and ESE to SE during mid/late Fri evening.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...37/Geelhart
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
820 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

ILZ027>031-037-038-045-046-280130-
Champaign-Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
820 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois, mainly north of I-74.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Some of the
storms may be strong to locally severe late Friday afternoon into
Friday night, with large hail possible. However, there is a
higher potential for severe storms Saturday, mainly during the
afternoon. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all
possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ036-040-041-047>050-280130-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
820 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms overnight in areas
from about Beardstown southward. Large hail is the primary
concern. Storms north of there may also produce some hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Some of the
storms may be strong to locally severe, with large hail and heavy
rain possible. However, there is a higher potential for severe
storms Saturday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon.
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible
Saturday.

Illinois River levels will rise the next several days. Minor
flooding continuing in many areas from Havana downstream.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required overnight. The most likely time
frame is from 2 am to 6 am.

ILZ042>044-051>057-061-062-066-067-071-072-280130-
Christian-Clay-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-
Jasper-Logan-Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-Richland-Sangamon-Shelby-
820 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms overnight,
generally along and south of a Jacksonville to Decatur to
Charleston line. Large hail is the primary concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Some of the
storms may be strong to locally severe, with large hail and heavy
rain possible. However, there is a higher potential for severe
storms Saturday, mainly from late morning through the afternoon.
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required overnight and early Friday. The
most likely time frame is between 3 am and 7 am.

ILZ063-068-073-280130-
Clark-Crawford-Lawrence-
820 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois, near the Wabash River.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected late tonight. The
strongest storms could produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night. Some of the
storms may be strong to locally severe, with large hail and heavy
rain possible. However, there is a higher potential for severe
storms Saturday, mainly from the afternoon into the early evening.
Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are all possible
Saturday.

While flooding on the Wabash River may temporarily subside during
the weekend in areas near Vincennes, additional rises are
expected next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required early Friday morning, generally
between 4 am and 7 am.

Geelhart