River Flood Warning 56, NWS Lincoln, IL

831 
WGUS83 KILX 271201
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Embarras River at Lawrenceville affecting Lawrence County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

ILC101-271315-
/O.EXP.KILX.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-201127T1200Z/
/LAWI2.1.ER.201127T0600Z.201127T0600Z.201127T0600Z.NO/
601 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...The Flood Warning for the Embarras River at Lawrenceville has 
expired.

* At 7:45 PM CST Thursday the stage was 29.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested at 30.0 feet overnight and will 
  continue to slowly fall.

&&


              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 am CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Embarras River
Lawrenceville 30.0  29.9  Thu 7 pm CST 28.2  24.8  22.4         





&&

LAT...LON 3885 8786 3885 8773 3869 8759 3861 8765

$$

Deubelbeiss

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
603 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will dominate central and
southeast Illinois into this Thanksgiving weekend. Lows overnight
will be in the 30s. Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 40s
in central IL and lower 50s in southeast IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

18z surface map indicated a weak cool front from northeast into
central IA, while 1020 mb high pressure was centered over the
lower Mississippi Valley. Resulting southwest low level flow was
working to erode the low level cloud deck, and had advanced east
of the IL River by 2 pm. Expect clearing to continue through much
of the central CWA into this evening, then cloud cover should
redevelop ahead of the advancing cold front. These clouds should
persist well into Friday morning, then begin to decrease from the
west towards midday. Due to the rather persistent cloud cover, low
diurnal temperature ranges will be observed with lows in the
mid/upper 30s tonight, and highs in the upper 40s Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Cool and quiet weather will be seen Saturday as 1025 mb high
pressure builds across central and southern IL.

The pattern begins to turn more active Sunday, when a northern
stream wave pushes a dry cold front into the area. Meanwhile a
southern stream disturbance will move into the lower Mississippi
Valley. 12z guidance still shows varying solutions on how quickly
the waves will phase, but the overall deterministic and ensemble
solutions favor this process occurring from the Ohio Valley
towards the Appalachians. This would bring higher impact winter
weather to Indiana and points east/northeast Sunday night through
Monday. NBM guidance brings chances for light rain into the
southeast third of the CWA Sunday evening, changing to snow after
midnight as the column cools below freezing behind the front. Any
minor accumulations would diminish on Monday east of I-57. Still
plenty of time for changes in the track of this system, as the
northern stream energy is still off the Pacific coast.

Higher confidence that a period of below normal temperatures will
impact the area Monday through Wednesday while low pressure
occludes over the eastern Great Lakes. This should result in highs
in the 30s with breezy northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Stratus/stratocumulus clouds with MVFR ceilings 1.5-2k ft
affecting DEC and CMI early this evening while low clouds have
scattered out at SPI and BMI and clear of low clouds at PIA with
some passing cirrus clouds. DEC on western edge of low clouds may
see these clouds scatter out to for a time next few hours. But
broken to overcast MVFR clouds likely to return to central IL
during late evening/early overnight. Some models like HRRR even
show more fog developing after 08Z/2 am overnight and for now
added MVFR vsbys from 09-15Z. A cold front over se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO to push se toward IL river/PIA by 12Z/6 am Fri and to
DEC and CMI by late Fri morning and should pass thru dry. MVFR
clouds to scattered out behind the cold front by Fri afternoon.
South to SW winds 5-10 kts early this evening to weaken to around
5 kts next few hours. Winds switch NW with passage of cold front
during Fri morning at 5-10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
301 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-073-272115-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-De Witt-
Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Fulton-Jasper-Knox-Lawrence-Logan-Macon-
Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
301 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ071-072-272115-
Clay-Richland-
301 PM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Minor flooding will continue on the Little Wabash River near Clay
City for the next several days, otherwise, no hazardous weather
is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

25