Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
807 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A line of strong storms is forecast to drop into the area
tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
throughout the week as several upper level disturbance affect
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MCS has been showing some signs of weakening as it has been
moving across Indiana, traversing the instability gradient.
Expect to continue to see weakening as this heads into the
forecast area where instability is even less. But system has
enough momentum that strong to severe winds gusts will be
possible, generally along and west of I-75. System will weaken
to the point where there may be little precipitation as it exits
the forecast area late this evening into the early overnight.
There are some signals that a secondary line of showers could
traverse the forecast area late tonight along a boundary that
will move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The fa finds itself on the southern edge of fast westerly flow on
Tuesday. A weak front associated with the flow will work into the
region and will add some surface forcing. There should be enough low
level moisture and instability on Tuesday for some scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop across the region. High will range from
the lower 80s in the northwest to around 90 in the lower Scioto
Valley.

High pressure starts to build in from the north Tuesday night,
bringing slight cooler air. Lows in the northwest will drop to the
mid 60s, but will remain in the upper 60s around the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening upper level shortwave will slowly dissipate as it
stalls over the southeastern CWA Wednesday, leading to the
continued chances of storms over the CWA. Precip will be
maximized in KY and SE OH counties with the peak heating of the
day, quickly dying out in the evening. The upper wave hangs
tough over the region and continues to bring a threat for
showers, possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday, again peaking
in the late day over the southern CWA in KY. During this time,
northern portions of the CWA will be under the influence of high
pressure to the north pushing in drier air on northeast winds,
limiting the overall chances of rain on any day but not strong
enough to remove showers and storms from the forecast with any
certainty.

Depending on the model of choice, the strung-out upper wave
will persist and then eventually get kicked out of the Ohio
Valley Saturday night. Then a stronger upper wave will be
accompanied by a surface cold front on Sunday that will finally
bring a drop in temperatures back to at or slightly below
climatology, and a dry period in the forecast. Until Sun
night/Mon, the chances for storms will reside in the forecast
but it does not appear to be a feast of rain for anyone that is
desiring a wet period.

Temperatures will be static in a day to day fashion until
Sunday night, with highs in the 80s to around 90 and lows
generally within 2-3 degrees of 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Convection moving across Indiana will be weakening as it heads
east. Storms will affect most of the terminals with a wind shift
and temporary reduction to IFR visibilities. This should move
through fairly quickly. There is uncertainty whether storms will
still hold together into the Columbus area, so initial TAF
issuance will just use VCTS. Expect conditions to return to VFR
once storms move through. There could be some additional showers
between 08Z and 12Z but at this point it does not appear that
this will lower visibilities or ceilings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the day Tuesday, but there was
enough uncertainty this far out in time to not include in the
forecast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
247 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-
060-061-070-071-077-078-111900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Preble-
Montgomery-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
247 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohi

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