Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1249 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and bring one more
round of showers and thunderstorms. A few showers will follow
Thursday and Thursday evening, with temperatures about 20
degrees cooler from today's highs expected on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated forecast to ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances
along and south of the Ohio River this afternoon that is forming
along a lingering boundary from last night's convection in
northeastern sections of the CWA.

Stratus north of Dayton to central Ohio is breaking up
relatively quickly and will continue to favor a clearing with
fair wx cu this later portion of the afternoon. Showers and a
few thunderstorms have already sparked along the boundary that
runs from south of Indianapolis to Cincy to Portsmouth. Forecast
increased the chances along this section through the day but
still had the lion's share of storms residing se and away from
the CWA. Will continue to maintain situational awareness and
update if any storms look to strengthen significantly early
today.

With the airmass surrounding the front remaining rather warm,
temperatures should rise to the upper 60s to mid 70s this
afternoon.

Storm development upstream in se IL/sw IN is still expected to
ramp up quickly this evening and track ese into the CWA as they
evolve from a supercellular nature to a QLCS or thunderstorm
clusters crossing the CWA later in the evening.

Main threat of these storms is damaging wind and very heavy
rain. Large hail is a possibility and the tornadic threat exists
where breaks in any convective line are present.

Overnight lows will be in the 40s, cooler to the northwest and
warmest in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Next cold front will be moving in from the west tonight, pushed
by a strong jet stream at the base of a deep upper trough.
Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front are
forecast to sweep across the FA, with severe weather possible
again under favorable instability (CAPE ~2000 J/KG) and winds
aloft. Thunderstorms will end Thursday as more stable air and
shallower moisture arrive behind the front, leaving a few
showers.

Brisk northwest winds with gusts to 30 knots will bring cold
advection Thursday, with much cooler temps reaching the mid 40s
northwest up to the mid 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Region finds itself in strong northwest flow as a deep closed H5 low
is centered north of the eastern Great Lakes. A sheared s/w swings
down across the region Thursday night. Models are kicking off light
showers with this feature, so added PoPs. Thicknesses will be cold
enough for snow to mix in by morning.

Surface high pressure will build east into the region Friday into
Friday night. Highs on Friday will generally be in the 40s. Lows
Friday night will be in the lower 30s and with lighter winds, it
looks like a chance of some frost.

Focus shifts to H5 s/w lifting out of the souther Rockies on
Saturday. It looks like Saturday may stay dry as the storm
organizes. Extended models are showing differences with the ejection
of the system. The 00Z GFS has a little more energy in the northern
stream which causes the surface low to develop north into the Upper
MS Valley. The ECMWF and CMC focus more on the southern stream
energy. Leaned more towards the ECMWF solution, which will bring
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.

The system pulls east on Monday leaving the region under cold
advection northwest flow again. A few showers could linger Monday
into Monday night. High pressure tries to build in Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratus over central Ohio and along I-70 corridor will break up
quickly in the next hour or two. The cigs that were earlier
forecast south of here were briefly present and then evolved
into a scattered to sometimes bkn cu with showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing along the Ohio River and extending se
towards the OH/WV/KY border.

A lull in convection should be observed this afternoon as
somewhat drier air works in briefly following the departing
cold front. Showers with VCTS and MVFR ceilings are forecast to
return late in the forecast as another cold front moves in.
Winds backing toward the south will then shift to northwest by
Thursday morning with frontal passage. Gusts approaching 30
knots can be expected behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Winds gusting around 30 knots are possible through
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-091445-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop to the west of the region later today and
track southeast and through the region this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornados are possible as the
storms cross.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed, while following all local,
state and CDC guidelines.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>054-060>064-070>074-080>082-088-091445-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop to the west of the region later today and
track southeast and through the region this evening and overnight.
Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and isolated tornados are
possible as the storms cross.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-055-056-065-091445-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Franklin OH-
Licking-Fairfield-
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop to the west of the region this afternoon
and track southeast this evening. These storms will primarily be
focused more to the southwest, but could skirt central and west
central Ohio. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are
possible, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

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