Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep east across the area this morning.
Showers will occur ahead of the front and it will become windy after
the front passes. High pressure will briefly build in Monday before
a secondary cold front crosses the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Pre-frontal showers continue to track across the eastern part of
the forecast area and will continue to quickly move off to the
east over the next few hours. Meanwhile, new convection has
developed in the dry slot in Indiana, right ahead of the front.
Believe that this will pivot northeast, so greatest chance of
additional rain, as well as possibly a thunderstorm will be
across northwest counties. There will be yet another chance of
showers in northern counties later this afternoon as colder
temperatures aloft move in with the mid level trough.

Winds are in a bit of a lull ahead of the cold front. But still
expecting a substantial increase in speed once the front moves
through. Strong, gusty winds will then persist through the
remainder of the day.

Temperatures may bump up a few degrees in eastern counties once
steadier showers move off and before the cold front moves
through. Readings will fall during the afternoon in the cold air
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure to a position over the Lower MS Valley by
Monday morning. Pressure gradient will gradually relax tonight
allowing winds to slowly subside. In addition, clouds will
diminish. Expect lows of 30 to 35.

Northwest flow aloft with surface ridge axis passing to our
south Monday. Expect to see abundant sunshine with in a dry
airmass with temperatures slightly below normal. Expect highs on
Monday to range from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest to west flow aloft and lack of moisture and forcing may
produce little precipitation through the period.

Weak short wave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night will probably
result in nothing more than increasing clouds. 1036mb surface high
pressure forming under a confluent northwest flow aloft will then
push across Ohio to the Atlantic Coast, producing dry weather and
scant cloud cover Tuesday through Thursday in its anticylonic
subsident circulation. Dry weather is likely to persist Friday as
the upper flow backs to west while the surface high remains to the
south. A small chance of showers is suggested for Saturday over
northern counties in a zone of isentropic lift ahead of weak low
pressure to the west.

High temperatures starting in the cooler than normal 40s Tuesday and
Wednesday will be boosted to the low 60s by Friday and Saturday in
warm advection behind the surface high.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low level jet is translating east, but there could still be some
low level wind shear and surface winds are in a bit of a lull.
Strong cold front tracking through Indiana will sweep across the
terminals by 17Z. In the wake of the front, winds will veer and
strong winds, both sustained and gusts, will occur.

Steadier showers will move east of the TAF sites in the next
hour or two. But additional showers and even a few thunderstorms
have developed immediately ahead of the front, and this activity
could still bring some temporary visibility reductions. There
are some MVFR ceilings both ahead of and behind the front. These
may just be transient.

Clouds will decrease and winds will diminish, although still
remain gusty, after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ042-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-
     035-043>046.
KY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
504 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-161015-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
504 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-161015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-
Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
504 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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