Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front across northern Indiana and far northwest
Ohio will lift north tonight into Tuesday morning. Dry and very
warm conditions will then occur through mid week. A cold front
will move across the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms occurring in a convergent axis south
of a stationary front will continue to track across northern
parts of the forecast area this afternoon and into the evening.
There is a cap across southern counties and it is not clear how
far north this extends. Recent trends have shown the southern
edge of the convection weakening and so it is uncertain how
much further south activity will develop. At this point still
believe that showers and some storms will reach the I-70
corridor. Parameters remain sufficiently favorable that there is
still the potential for some stronger storms, possibly even
severe, as well as locally heavy rainfall with efficient rain
rates and possibly some training.

Activity will diminish in intensity heading through the evening,
but it does appear that showers and some thunder will persist
while lifting north. Entire forecast area may not be
precipitation free until late tonight.

Lows will be in the 60s with warmer readings in the northwest
and slightly cooler in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Southerly flow will continue across the entire region on the
western periphery of an East Coast high pressure system. Cannot
completely rule out a storm in west central Ohio, but the rest
of the forecast area will see plenty of sun. Temperatures will
be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Low level
flow will back Tuesday night as an inverted trough develops into
the Ohio Valley. But it will remain dry and warm with lows in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected at the start of the long term.  With
little in the way of cloud cover on Wednesday expect temperatures to
climb into the middle 80s to the lower 90s.  A frontal boundary
works into the region on Thursday, however with little in the way of
moisture, went with a dry frontal passage.  Temperatures will be
cooler on Thursday, especially across the northwestern portions of
the region where only expect temperatures in the 70s.  Elsewhere,
80s are expected on Thursday.

Friday is expected to be a cooler day with high temperatures in the
lower 70s to lower 80s before southerly flow returns for Saturday.
This southerly flow will allow for temperatures in the 80s on
Saturday.  Southerly flow will also allow for an increase in
moisture ahead of a frontal boundary and therefore also have
precipitation chances in the forecast for Saturday.  These
precipitation chances will continue into Sunday as the frontal
boundary moves through the area.  Dry conditions return for Monday
along with cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms across Indiana and Illinois at
issuance time will likely affect KDAY to KCMH/KLCK during the
first part of the TAF period. Have attempted to time in best
chance of TSRA with a narrow TEMPO group. Outside of any
storms, expect VFR conditions. Other terminals are forecast to
remain dry. Clouds will gradually diminish after 00Z. South to
southwest winds 10 to 15 kt early will slowly decrease later in
the day and then back slightly after 00Z and continue to
diminish. There may be some shallow fog at KLUK overnight. Few
cumulus may then develop area wide late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
402 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-080815-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
402 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to damaging wind gusts remain possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon into the early evening. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall could result in some minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088-
080815-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
402 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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