Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
956 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will remain in place today and tonight as the
remnants of Laura moves east across Kentucky while a cold front
pushes southeast into the region. The cold front will clear the area
by Saturday evening, allowing high pressure to build into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will result in drier and
cooler air for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update centered on muting temps this afternoon given
ample cloud cover, and lowering the immediate rain chances.
Removed thunder chances before noon and then brought in isolated
thunder this afternoon where pops >= chance category.

Moist airmass will continue to be split between the tropical and
more upper level forced precip to the south and the frontally
and surface forced parcels to the north.

The overall weak lift allows for varying solutions on
where/when convection will be the most active. In addition,
given the moist airmass, it will not take much lift to result in
rainfall. Thus, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop later this morning. The likelihood of showers/storms
may occur along and north of I-70 where instability, lift, and
convergence is maximized while scattered convection occurs
elsewhere. There is a risk for a few strong to severe storms
given pcpn loading (downbursts) along with localized flooding
from heavy rain. Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Laura in the form of weak surface low pressure
will track east across Kentucky tonight while a cold front moves
southeast into our region. It appears that the pcpn associated
with Laura will skim our Kentucky zones. For the rest of the
area, shower/storm coverage should diminish this evening with
the loss of heating. In fact, the combination of convergence
into Laura and convergence into the cold front to our northwest
may bring a period of little pcpn activity to northern/western
sections (low level divergence) for much of the night until the
front moves in. Lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower
70s.

On Saturday, the cold front will continue southeast through the
region. A chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms will
exist until frontal passage. Clouds will begin to scatter from
the northwest during the afternoon hours. Highs will range from
the lower to mid 80s.

For Saturday night, high pressure will build south into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Drier and cooler air will filter
into the area. Skies will become mostly clear with some higher
level clouds arriving across the southern zones late. Lows will
range from the lower 50s northwest to near 60 far southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure forming under a westerly flow aloft
should allow dry weather on Sunday. Upper flow will then back to
southwest and remain so through the remainder of the long term
as a trough builds to the west. This flow will bring increasing
moisture that will work with short wave energy along developing
boundary to keep a threat of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Monday through Thursday.

The first round of moisture and forcing should impact mainly
southern locations on Monday when there will be a good chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms. Similar conditions are
expected Tuesday in this slowly evolving pattern. The front,
aligned roughly parallel to the upper flow, may play a more
prominent role Wednesday and Thursday as it moves gradually from
the west. Frontal convergence will keep the chance for showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast, perhaps aided by moisture
transported from the Pacific Ocean as the upper trough digs
farther south while a closed upper low forms near the base. Hard
to pinpoint a widespread severe weather threat at this point,
though heavy rain may be observed in association with the slow
moving boundary.

Temperatures start below normal, with highs reaching the mid
and upper 70s Sunday. As we move into the early part of
September, readings are forecast to rebound gradually, with near
normal highs in the lower 80s expected by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A very moist airmass will remain across the region today.
Weak low level moisture transport and weak embedded energy aloft
will couple with diurnal instability to produce at least
scattered convection across the region. At this time, the best
coverage is expected toward the KCMH/KLCK terminals where MVFR
conditions in TSRA were forecast. Given the moist airmass,
aviators need to be aware that lower conditions may occur in
the more robust storms (IFR/LIFR visibilities). Winds will be
from the south around 10 knots with local gusts up to 16 knots.

For tonight, a cold front will push southeast into our region
late. Meanwhile, the remnants of Laura will be moving east
across Kentucky. There looks like there will be a downward trend
in storms/coverage this evening with the loss of heating. For
the overnight hours, precipitation associated with Laura is
expected to remain mainly south/southeast of the terminals
across Kentucky while a chance of showers/slight chance of
thunderstorms will remain in the airmass ahead of the
approaching front. Low levels will moisten up ahead of the
front, and it now looks like MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop
overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings expected Saturday. Thunderstorms
possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Franks/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-290845-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop across the area today. Some storms could
be severe, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are
the primary severe weather threat. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall may result in flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>074-077>082-088-290845-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
432 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1103 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

INZ050-OHZ042-060-281530-
Wayne IN-Darke OH-Preble OH-
1103 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...NORTHERN
PREBLE AND SOUTHERN DARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

At 1102 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near New
Madison, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Arcanum, Bradford, New Madison, Webster, Wayne Lakes,
Gettysburg, Eldorado, Verona, West Manchester, Pitsburg, Bethel,
Hollansburg, Gordon, Palestine, Ithaca, Castine, Whitewater, Union
Corners and Abbottsville.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 5 and 8.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4001 8484 4000 8481 4002 8481 4021 8444
      3992 8443 3992 8448 3989 8449 3982 8471
      3997 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 240DEG 30KT 3990 8470

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1141 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

OHZ042-051-281615-
Darke OH-Miami OH-
1141 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DARKE AND CENTRAL
MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

At 1141 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Pleasant
Hill, moving northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, West Milton, Covington, Pleasant Hill, Laura,
Potsdam, Casstown, Ludlow Falls, Haven View, Circle Hill and
Farrington.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 71 and 84.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4019 8422 4019 8417 4003 8404 4001 8404
      3996 8444 4004 8453 4020 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 244DEG 23KT 4001 8444

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