Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through midweek
as several weather disturbances move through the region. Summer
heat returns today and Wednesday before a cold front and
tropical moisture provide additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms by weeks end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection firing in central Ohio will continue to increase in
coverage for the next few hours as the storms move to the
southeast. New storm development is being indicated to run
almost due south along the Scioto River with a continued
propagation to the southeast. Bulk of models are showing that
Dayton and Cincinnati metro areas will remain dry this
afternoon, but the confidence in exactly the western edge of the
storms that fire this afternoon remains low. Another storm east
of KDAY has popped at the issuance of this update and accounted
for attm. Low chance pops seem to be the best way to play this
with a coverage wording.

Lingering showers will dissipate relatively quickly this evening
but some may hold together through the evening hours.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s are forecast. With the
added moisture from rain and weak surface flow, some fog is
possible for the Wednesday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
A weakening stalled frontal boundary is forecast to be stretched
from northwest to southeast across the area. Throughout the
afternoon, the frontal boundary lifts northeastward, possibly
initiating isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far
northeast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area is expected
to be dry and hot with temperatures in the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday night looks like it will be dry, as a surface high
pressure ridge temporarily builds in.

On Thursday tropical moisture, probably the remnants of
Hurricane Marco are pulled north around the surface ridge. This
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday night might see a decrease of rain coverage as the
region gets between systems.

The remnants of current Tropical Storm Laura lift up into the
region on Friday. The remnants of Laura will interact with a
cold front trying to drop south through the Great Lakes. There
are still differences in the exact path and timing of the center
of Laura, but it appears that the center will pass to the south
of the region through Kentucky Friday night into Saturday.

The front will drop down through the region on Saturday,
helping to eventually shunt the moisture through the region.
Highs on Saturday will be much cooler, only reaching the upper
70s to lower 80s.

GFS has come around to yesterday's ECMWF solution for Sunday,
which builds in high pressure and dry weather. The high will
bring pleasant conditions with highs only 75 to 80 degrees.

As the high retreats to the east on Monday, moisture begins to
return. The GFS is the quickest with the return of
precipitation. Will carry some low PoPs in the Cinci Tri-State.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found with the exception of isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm activity actually hitting an
airport.

Organized storms will remain generally east of the Scioto Valley
and out of TAF forecasts today, but more could be in the offing
tomorrow. Columbus/Rickenbacker seem to have the best potential
tomorrow but will hold off on putting anything in here through
18Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
504 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-073-074-082-260915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Pike-
504 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, South Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is potential for strong to severe storms to develop this
afternoon, lingering into Tuesday evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threat.

Heat indicies expected to be in the mid 90s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indicies expected to be in the mid 90s Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed, while following all local, state
and CDC guidelines.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-070>072-077>081-088-
260915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Scioto-
504 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Heat indicies expected to be in the mid 90s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indicies expected to be in the mid 90s Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.