Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight as
a cold front moves through the region. Behind the front, a
drier and more seasonable airmass will settle into the area for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will move southeast across the area through
tonight. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms have
developed closer to the front across central/northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio, with more isolated to scattered activity
farther to the southeast. The airmass across our area is
moderately unstable with ml capes in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg
range. Thus, expect activity to become more widespread across
our area from the north/west through late afternoon into early
evening ahead of the advancing front. While shear values are on
the weaker side, dcapes remain quite high, generally in excess
of 1000 j/kg across our area. As a result, there will remain a
damaging with threat into early evening with the stronger
storms. PWS are also on the high side in the 2.0-2.25 inch range
so locally heavy rainfall can also be expected. Expect an
overall weakening trend in the intensity and possibly coverage
through the overnight hours as the pcpn sags south and we lose
the diurnal heating component.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to push south of the area on Tuesday.
We could see a few lingering showers/storms across our
southeast, but with drier air filtering in behind the front,
generally expect to see skies becoming mostly sunny from the
northwest through the day. Seasonable temperatures are expected
on Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s and lows Tuesday night in
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Slightly cooler and drier air will build into the region by late
Tuesday through midweek in the post-frontal environment. Confidence
remains fairly high in temperatures being near or slightly below by
the end of the week -- especially with the prospect of one or more
systems progressing through southern parts of the region during this
time period.

The local area may be caught between two areas of scattered pcpn
during the day on Wednesday -- one to the north associated with mid-
level energy pivoting around the base of broad upper-level troughing
over the Great Lakes region and another associated with the
lingering/remnant leftovers of the frontal boundary to the south
toward the northern TN Valley. Either way, most of the area will see
dry conditions on Wednesday, with seasonably warm temperatures
before the downward trend really begins to take shape later in the
week/weekend.

With broad cyclonic mid/upper level flow setting up by midweek,
focus will quickly turn to the ejection of a S/W from the central
plains east into the mid-Mississippi River Valley by late Wednesday
into Thursday. As this occurs, the front that progressed through the
area late Tuesday will stall just south of the ILN FA, perhaps
somewhere in the northern TN Valley or even begin to pivot back
north, with fairly robust moisture transport north into the
redeveloping/tightening frontal boundary by Thursday into Friday.
There are still several items to work out regarding the evolution of
this system and the eventual track of it east through the southern
Ohio Valley/northern TN Valley late in the workweek. Subtle
differences in timing and/or placement of the ingredients will yield
drastically different sensible weather conditions -- depending on
one's exact location. The ingredients are certainly there to support
a wet pattern from Thursday into early Friday (especially near/south
of the Ohio River) , with a renewed threat for widespread
precipitation arriving by later Saturday into Sunday. Still much to
figure out regarding the details of this pattern, so feel best right
now to include likely PoPs in the far south and a slightly drier
fcst in the north for Thursday/Thursday night. Should the system
eject east in a bit weaker form, it may drift just south of the ILN
FA, yielding more isolated impacts locally. Undoubtedly, however,
the guidance/data will be watched in the coming days, especially
with indications of the trailing/main S/W being rather slow to
progress east this weekend into early next week.

Current data suggests that the meandering S/W trof may stay to
the west of the immediate area (perhaps lingering in the mid-
Mississippi River Valley) through early Saturday before becoming
more neutrally- tilted by Sunday as it begins to pivot
northeast into the Ohio Valley. While the guidance regarding
this seasonably potent system remains somewhat varied -- both
spatially and temporally -- it is worth noting that some of the
most recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has converged on
a stronger solution with a developing closed surface low moving
northeast through the region on Sunday. This would be a
somewhat unusual synoptic setup given the time of the year, with
the prospect of respectably strong forcing/large- scale ascent
with seasonably abundant antecedent moisture/instability
profiles. The collocation of these ingredients would certainly
bear watching from a widespread heavy rain threat, should it
materialize in such a manner. With this in mind, there is a
signal for widespread rain late this coming weekend, with the
details regarding placement, timing, and magnitude still to be
resolved in the coming days.

With moderate confidence in at least a cloudier pattern for the end
of the week (and potentially wetter), temps will remain near or
slightly below normal through the latter part of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the region this
afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. More widespread
convection across northern Indiana and northern Ohio, closer to
the front, will continue to work its way southward into our
area through early evening. Showers and thunderstorm coverage
should then begin to decrease in coverage/intensity as it pushes
south through the night and we lose the diurnal component.
Behind the pcpn, we could see a period of MVFR cigs later
tonight possibly into early Tuesday morning. Drier air will then
filter into the region behind the front, leading to VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period.

OUTLOOK...A chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL

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